FXUS63 KFGF 070416 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1116 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather conditions are likely tomorrow afternoon with relative humidity values approaching 25%. - At least near critical fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend with the potential for critical fire weather conditions, particularly on Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 There is increasing confidence in near critical fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon based on expected deeper vertical mixing. For this reason, an SPS was issued for near critical fire weather conditions in northwest Minnesota, as there is a high probability for areas to fall into the low to mid 20s in relative humidity. Winds should remain below 20 mph sustained, avoiding the potential for red flag conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper low continues to rotate over Hudson Bay, with several weak shortwaves coming down the backside of it from Manitoba into the Northern Plains. Colder than average temps and mostly cloudy skies will continue for much of the day, but some clearing tonight as the shortwaves start to pull east. Upper heights will rise a bit tomorrow, and although not a huge amount of warm air advection, the 850mb temps will be on an upward path. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 Winds will remain light and variable overnight, increasing to northwesterly after sunrise. Sustained winds at peak afternoon winds will generally be below 15 knots, although some areas may briefly hit that tomorrow afternoon. Skies will remain VFR through the entire TAF period with any cloud decks that do develop being generally above 5000 ft. There is a low probability for showers around BJI however given the dry conditions, it appears like aviation impacts will be limited. Near these showers, ceilings may fall to 5000 ft at the lowest. Winds will diminish after sunset tomorrow beneath mostly clear skies, thereby continuing VFR conditions and low aviation impacts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Perroux