FXUS63 KFGF 061920

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

220 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Near critical or critical fire weather conditions may develop

  Thursday into the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



...Synopsis...



Upper low continues to rotate over Hudson Bay, with several weak

shortwaves coming down the backside of it from Manitoba into the

Northern Plains. Colder than average temps and mostly cloudy

skies will continue for much of the day, but some clearing

tonight as the shortwaves start to pull east. Upper heights will

rise a bit tomorrow, and although not a huge amount of warm air

advection, the 850mb temps will be on an upward path. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Stratus around 3500-6000 ft continues across most of the

forecast area, with some MVFR ceilings hanging around KBJI.

Those lower cigs should lift in the next few hours. The VFR

cloud cover that remains should see a slow decrease tonight into

tomorrow morning. Winds from the northwest are periodically

gusting up to 18 to 20 kts this afternoon, but gusts will

diminish right around 00Z and will become light and variable

later in the evening. A few airports will see winds pick up

again out of the northwest towards the end of the period, but

speeds are expected to remain below 12 kts. The upward

temperature trend continues into Friday, although not so large

that it completely negates the cold signal in the ECMWF EFI.

There is decent agreement on a cold front coming through Friday

night into Saturday, bringing a few very light rain showers and

knocking temps back down a bit. Flow remains mostly

northwesterly as we head through the end of the weekend and into

next week. Heights a bit higher as the main trough axis shifts

east and temps could be back above average for a time, but 

there are several model solutions that bring a shortwave into 

the Northern Plains during the Monday/Tuesday time frame. 

Impacts from this shortwave mostly a few light showers.



...Near critical fire weather tomorrow and Friday...



Warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow, but dew points will

be similar to today, with readings in the low to mid 20s.

Afternoon RH values will therefore be rather dry tomorrow

afternoon, with 50 percent chance for RHs below 25 percent along

and west of the Red River. A few spots could even get below 20

percent, with a 30 percent chance in parts of eastern North

Dakota. Pressure gradient remains fairly weak into tomorrow, but

there should be enough mixing to get winds into the 10 to 15 mph

range. A bit higher dew points and less dry RH values for

Friday, but winds will be a bit higher as a weak surface low

moves into northeastern MN. While the winds will not be quite

there Thursday and better RH values on Friday, both days could

see near critical fire weather conditions in a few spots.



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JR

AVIATION...JR