FXUS63 KFGF 051721

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

1221 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- No significant weather related hazards through the end of the

  week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026



The main upper trough continues to rotate to our north over

central Canada, with cooler air aloft allowing for a fair amount

of cumulus to develop over the region this afternoon. The cloud

cover will dissipate after sunset, leaving surface high 

pressure and dew points in the 40s. At this point think we 

should stay above the 40 mark overnight, but a few spots could 

get into the low to mid 40s. A couple of the model runs have 

some light precip along the Canadian border tomorrow as a 

reinforcing shortwave rounds the base of the upper trough, but 

NBM probs of anything measurable are less than 10 percent. A 

stronger shortwave moving through could bring a few showers 

Thursday afternoon and evening, but main impacts look to be 

brief downpours and some lightning as surface based CAPE looks 

pretty limited and should remain under 1000 J/kg. Slightly 

cooler and quiet on Friday as a cold front and then high 

pressure come down behind the shortwave. 



Ensembles are in pretty good agreement on northwesterly flow

aloft continuing through the weekend and into the start of next

week, with various weak shortwaves moving through. NBM has keyed

in on one of those shortwaves coming through Sunday night and

into Monday bringing fairly high probabilities of at least 0.01

of precip. Given uncertainty with the timing of such features in

the long term see little reason to change it at this point.

Temperatures seem fairly seasonable with highs in the upper 70s

to low 80s and lows in the 50s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



VFR conditions now and throughout the period with mid and high

clouds above 10000 ft coming in and mostly impacting the

northern TAF sites. Winds will gust out of the southwest around

20 kts at times this afternoon, but will lose their gusts 

around sunset. 



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JR

AVIATION...JR