FXUS63 KFGF 051157 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 557 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonally warm weather into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 552 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Cloudy area wide. Fog did form but well west of our forecast area so removed from the grids. Few flurries noted in NW Ontario and a sprinkle or two noted around Waskish. Main question forecast wise thru the day into tonight will be sky cover trends. There are breaks in the clouds upstream just north of Winnipeg and Brandon MB, and all models do gradually dry out the 925 layer with lowering RH this aftn and tonight. How much clearing this promotes is uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 ...Synopsis... This afternoon, an upper level low is located near the Twin Cities, with lingering rain and stratus to its northwest over much of west central MN. Rain will slowly come to an end as the low tracks towards the Great Lakes tonight. In its wake, a mix of stratus and fog is expected to develop as high pressure nudges in from the west. Thereafter, expansive ridging over the western CONUS will propagate eastward, bringing ever warmer temperatures and generally dry conditions over the next seven days. Temperatures over the course of the week will warm from the upper 30s/40s on Thursday, into the 40s on Friday and then well into the 50s from Saturday through early next week. The ridge does flatten a bit over the weekend, but any weak waves propagating through the flow still look to remain well to our north. Early next week, another ridge over the western US pushes eastward out of the Rockies. 850 mb temperatures Sunday night into Monday are near their climatological max over the western Dakotas, with 90th percentile values extending eastward into our southern FA. With 850mb temperatures of 11 to 13 degrees Celsius Monday afternoon, portions of southeastern ND and west central MN are forecasted to have highs push to near 60 degrees. Cloud cover, along with a quick passing cold front tracking southeastward Monday afternoon both may limit just how warm we get. If the front slows down and clouds can hold off, temperatures may climb a few degrees over 60. This is supported by the 75th percentile of the NBM, which shows highs in our region generally in the 61 to 63 degree range. For reference, average high temperatures by early next week are on either side of 40 degrees (upper 30s near the Canadian Border, low 40s near the SD border). Behind the front, temperatures will drop just a bit into the 50s, which is still well above average. ...Rain Slowly Ending Late Wednesday... After three days of stratus and on and off rain, the upper low responsible for the latest dreary weather will finally push northeast tonight. This will bring an end to rainfall. Cloud cover may not be as fast to leave, with stratus or fog forming overnight. Low level winds to look to remain a bit elevated, which may help limit the areal extent of fog and keep us with more stratus instead. Nonetheless, with recent rainfall, a few patches of fog are forecast overnight into Thursday morning across much of eastern ND into adjacent portions of northwestern MN. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 552 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Cloudy this morning with ceilings sub 1000 ft agl in the Devils Lake basin and also in the east edge of the RRV from KTRF to KDTL and also around Fargo-Moorhead. Rest of the area ceilings 1000-1400 ft agl. Trends today will be for ceilings to reside mostly in the 1000-1500 ft agl range mid to late morning and then likely scenario is a slow rise in the ceiling base heights this afternoon and evening. Scattering out of the MVFR deck is possible tonight but confidence is low to moderate at this time. North winds gusting 20-25 kts this morning but lowering this aftn and then near calm by evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...Rafferty AVIATION...Riddle