FXUS63 KFGF 022343

AFDFGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

643 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms for eastern

  North Dakota into northwest Minnesota late Thursday night into

  early Friday morning. Main hazards include hail to the size of

  ping pong balls and gusty winds to 60 mph.



- Additional severe storm potential (level 1 out of 5 risk)

  during the afternoon and evening on Friday the Fourth of July

  eastern North Dakota into Minnesota. Main hazards include

  hail, gusty winds, and flash flooding.



- Heat related impact potential exists Friday the Fourth of July

  as heat indices approach 100.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Had a weak shower go up just north of Fargo, but quickly

dissipated as it drew in dry mid-level air. Still some rather

beefy cumulus hanging around the weak boundary in the area so

will keep isolated POP mention with slight adjustments. However,

any activity will be very isolated and impacts limited to a

brief downpour. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



...Synopsis...



Upper ridge moving into the Northern Plains will allow

increasing low level moisture content and warmer temperatures

into the region starting today, peaking on Friday. While there 

is a small chance (20%) for an isolated thunderstorm today, 

lingering dry air and weak forcing for ascent will keep chances

low. Should a thunderstorm form, gusty winds to 50 mph may

occur. Cannot rule out a brief, landspout-type tornado if

thunderstorm forms on a boundary extending from the Devils Lake

basin into the Red River Valley.



Thunderstorm chances markedly increase starting late tomorrow

night as storms move out of central ND into eastern ND, and

eventually into northwest Minnesota predawn/early Friday 

morning. Timing and location of thunderstorms will depend on how

the low level jet impinges upon the area. Some storms may be 

severe. Main hazards will be gusty winds and hail, with wind 

being more dominate hazard should storms move through as 

linear/thunderstorm complex, or hail if they are more discrete.

 

As the upper ridge continues to shift east, a surface front also

moves east toward central/eastern ND. This will provide focus 

for widespread thunderstorms to form upon potentially as early 

as early afternoon. Moderate to high instability is forecast

amid weak shear, bringing chance for storms to become severe.

Hail and gusty winds will be main hazards. 



Perhaps more widespread will be the flash flood potential. Rich

moisture content, high instability, and parallel flow along the

front will make for efficient and high rain rates that could

train over an area. Widespread convection starting as early as

early afternoon lasting into early evening contributes to

potential widespread chance of flash flooding, especially over

urban areas/cities/towns.



Heat impacts within the very moist air mass may occur Friday

before thunderstorms as well. Temperatures well into the 90s and

dew points well into the 70s will contribute to apparent

temperatures around 100, best chance in the Red River Valley as

well as just ahead of the front. While Friday holds greatest

chance for heat-related impacts, Thursday may see some heat-

related impacts as wet-bulb globe temperatures approach 80,

mainly south of I-94 corridor due to increasing humidity and

ample sunshine amid temperatures in the low 90s.



Saturday, the rich moisture air mass pushes east of our area,

with upper flow flattening. There will still be enough moisture

and instability to continue a low chance for scattered showers

and thunderstorms. 



Upper pattern is then favored to stay either flattened/zonal or

northwesterly. This will promote near average temperatures as

well as near average to slightly below average precipitation.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



VFR conditions with a few showers going up in the KFAR area, but

are quickly dissipating before lightning can form. Have VCSH but

will monitor in the unlikely event something stronger develops.

Other airports are pretty quiet with northeast winds less than

10 kts. Winds will become light and variable at many locations

overnight, then pick up out of the southeast tomorrow with gusts

up above 20 kts possible. 



&&



.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...None.

MN...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...JR

DISCUSSION...CJ

AVIATION...JR