FXUS63 KFGF 022122 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 422 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms for eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Main hazards include hail to the size of ping pong balls and gusty winds to 60 mph. - Additional severe storm potential (level 1 out of 5 risk) during the afternoon and evening on Friday the Fourth of July eastern North Dakota into Minnesota. Main hazards include hail, gusty winds, and flash flooding. - Heat related impact potential exists Friday the Fourth of July as heat indices approach 100. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...Synopsis... Upper ridge moving into the Northern Plains will allow increasing low level moisture content and warmer temperatures into the region starting today, peaking on Friday. While there is a small chance (20%) for an isolated thunderstorm today, lingering dry air and weak forcing for ascent will keep chances low. Should a thunderstorm form, gusty winds to 50 mph may occur. Cannot rule out a brief, landspout-type tornado if thunderstorm forms on a boundary extending from the Devils Lake basin into the Red River Valley. Thunderstorm chances markedly increase starting late tomorrow night as storms move out of central ND into eastern ND, and eventually into northwest Minnesota predawn/early Friday morning. Timing and location of thunderstorms will depend on how the low level jet impinges upon the area. Some storms may be severe. Main hazards will be gusty winds and hail, with wind being more dominate hazard should storms move through as linear/thunderstorm complex, or hail if they are more discrete. As the upper ridge continues to shift east, a surface front also moves east toward central/eastern ND. This will provide focus for widespread thunderstorms to form upon potentially as early as early afternoon. Moderate to high instability is forecast amid weak shear, bringing chance for storms to become severe. Hail and gusty winds will be main hazards. Perhaps more widespread will be the flash flood potential. Rich moisture content, high instability, and parallel flow along the front will make for efficient and high rain rates that could train over an area. Widespread convection starting as early as early afternoon lasting into early evening contributes to potential widespread chance of flash flooding, especially over urban areas/cities/towns. Heat impacts within the very moist air mass may occur Friday before thunderstorms as well. Temperatures well into the 90s and dew points well into the 70s will contribute to apparent temperatures around 100, best chance in the Red River Valley as well as just ahead of the front. While Friday holds greatest chance for heat-related impacts, Thursday may see some heat- related impacts as wet-bulb globe temperatures approach 80, mainly south of I-94 corridor due to increasing humidity and ample sunshine amid temperatures in the low 90s. Saturday, the rich moisture air mass pushes east of our area, with upper flow flattening. There will still be enough moisture and instability to continue a low chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Upper pattern is then favored to stay either flattened/zonal or northwesterly. This will promote near average temperatures as well as near average to slightly below average precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period. Winds will be light under 10kt, turning variable and less than 5kt after 01Z. After 15Z Thursday, winds increase out of the south 10-15kt, gusting to 20kt in Devils Lake basin (KDVL). Thunderstorm chances increase late Thursday night into Friday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...CJ