FXUS63 KEAX 272320 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 620 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dreary fall conditions expected through Wednesday as abundant cloud cover keeps temperatures below normal. - Rain chances return Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. Rainfall amounts of 1-2" possible across central Missouri. - Drier conditions with more seasonal temperatures expected late week into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Yet another gray and dreary day with extensive cloud cover moderating temperatures, keeping them a few degrees below normal for this time of year. A mid to upper level low remains just to our southeast near the western TN/KY border with another mid to upper level trough over the Alberta/Saskatchewan border slowly transiting east. At the surface, there is a low over eastern SD and a high over the eastern Great Lakes that will keep our windflow mostly out of the east/southeast through the day. Extensive cloud coverage across the area will once again keep our temperature spreads from high to low temperatures fairly small. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 50s with a few areas possibly reaching the low 60s. Early morning lows will range in the upper 40s to low 50s. Our attention then shifts to tonight into early tomorrow morning as the mid to upper level low over the Alberta/Saskatchewan border continues to track east, dragging the associated cold front towards our western doorstep. This will result in precip chances starting late tonight into early tomorrow morning. These showers are expected to linger and become more widespread through the day as the front pushes through the area. No severe is anticipated with these showers as there is very limited instability. However, conditions could be a bit breezy with occasional wind gusts to 25-35 mph especially on the backside of the front as winds reorient to the north/northwest. From a hydro perspective, increased moisture transport out ahead of the front will result in PWATs above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Showers in this kind of environment could yield a few brief heavy downpours, however flooding concerns still remain low. Forecasted rain accumulation totals for Tuesday and Wednesday combined seem to hover around .75 to 1.5 inches with more recent models trending even lower. The guidance consensus keeps higher rainfall totals to the north (better forcing) and south/southeast (more moisture and instability). Outside of the few light rains we have had recently, conditions have been fairly dry which has resulted in high FFG values. This, coupled with the duration of the showers suggest flooding concerns remain minimal. Drier air on the backside of the front will help us finally clear out of this extensive cloud cover late Wednesday into Thursday. As clouds begin to clear out and winds weaken, this will allow temperatures to dip into the mid to upper 30s by Thursday morning, increasing the frost potential. As winds remain out of the north/northwest through the second half of this week, daily chances for frost in the mornings stick around into the weekend. Early morning lows are anticipated to range around the mid 30s to low 40s (near or just below seasonal averages). With persistent northerly flow, conditions appear to stay dry through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 IFR cigs will cont to prevail thru the pd with lgt fog reducing vis to 3-5SM thru 15Z. Aft 15Z...lgt shra are fcst to mov into the terminals keeping vis reduced to 3SM-5SM before mod-hvy shra move into the terminals btn 18Z-20Z and persists thru the end of the TAF pd. Winds will be lgt out of the east thru 15Z before going lgt and vrb. A cold front will pass thru the TAF sites btn 18Z-20Z shifting winds the NE/NNE and incr to 10-15kts with gust to 20-25kts behind the front. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...73