FXUS63 KEAX 271743

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Dreary fall conditions expected through Wednesday as abundant cloud 

  cover keeps temperatures below normal. 



* Rain expected Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure develops 

  along a cold front moving through the region. Rainfall amounts of 

  1-2" possible across central Missouri



* Drier conditions with more seasonal temperatures expected late

  week into next weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Slow moving trough that has brought abundant cloud cloud cover and 

light rain to the region has now made it's way to southeast 

Missouri. Clockwise flow around the surface ridge across the 

northeastern US will promote easterly winds today as upper low to 

the south moves east into the Tennessee Valley and we 

transition to the next system approaching from the northwest. 

Latent moisture across the region will support another gloomy 

fall day across the region. While lift remains relatively weak 

today, the relatively deep saturated later from the surface 

through 800+ mb could create morning fog and the potential for 

patchy drizzle throughout the day. The gray skies and only weak

low level warm air advection will keep high temperatures below 

seasonal norms. Have sided towards the cooler side of guidance 

for today (roughly near the 25 percentile of guidance members).



Cold front associated with a trough across Saskatchewan shifts east 

across the Northern Plains today. Above the surface, relatively

strong flow from northern California into the central Rockies 

will propel midlevel energy into the central US leading to a 

deepening trough across the central US Tuesday into Wednesday. 

With the latent moisture across the area (precipitable water 

values near 90th percentile for this time of year), cold front 

will have plenty of moisture to work with as it shifts east; 

however, instability will be relatively limited with meager mid 

level lapse rates. Expect rain to develop along and behind the 

cold front as it sweeps across the region on Tuesday, but could 

look at a prolonged period of precipitation lasting well into 

Wednesday across central into eastern Missouri as trough deepens

along the thermal gradient. With relatively dry antecedent 

conditions (region remains in D0-D2 drought), worked with WPC 

to remove excessive rainfall outlook for the forecast area, 

despite the potential for decent rainfall with this system. 

LREF ensemble suggests 30% potential of 1" of rainfall for much 

of the region, with probabilities trending closer to 50% for 

portions of central Missouri. 



Drier conditions late week lead to a gradual warming trend, but 

northwest flow on the backside of the trough is expected to drag a 

relatively strong short wave south east across the region on 

Saturday.  Currently, models suggest there would be relatively 

little amounts of moisture to work with, therefore maintained a dry 

forecast through the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



LIFR/IFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period. 

Cigs may improve briefly this afternoon, but IFR conditions will 

swiftly return late this evening into tonight. As a front moves 

through the area starting tomorrow morning/afternoon a round of 

showers will be possible towards the end of the TAF period for the 

terminals. However, confidence is low at this time regarding timing. 

These showers will become more widespread as the front moves farther 

east through the day.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BT

AVIATION...Collier