FXUS63 KEAX 270458

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1158 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Ongoing drizzle/light rain again today mainly south of I-70. Low-

end chances for drizzle/light rain early tomorrow morning into the 

afternoon primarily east of I-35.



- Additional rainfall is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



Gray and dreary conditions persist with a mid to upper level low 

remaining dominant over the central U.S. Another mid to upper level 

low remains off the western Canadian coast will continue its track 

to the south/southwest that will provide precip chances for our area 

in the next few days. At the surface, a high remains over the 

eastern Great Lakes region and a low over Alberta/Saskatchewan. With 

our area being between these two features an increased pressure has 

led to occasional gusts ranging around 20-25 mph. Weak isentropic 

lift at the 295 K surface has resulted in some drizzles/light 

showers primarily south of I-70. Hi-res models suggest precip 

chances begin to decrease late this afternoon into the evening. As 

far as temperatures, diurnal spreads will remain fairly small given 

the extensive amount of cloud coverage. Highs today will range in 

the upper 50s to low 60s while early morning lows tomorrow will stay 

mostly in the upper 40s to low 50s.



For the start of next week, the mid to upper level low over the 

central U.S. gradually makes its way farther east keeping precip 

chances barely alive mainly east of I-35 Monday morning into the 

afternoon. There seems to be disagreement among the CAMs, as the 

HREF only keeps a below 30% chance for measurable precip along and 

east of I-35. With remnant moisture and few weak bands of vorticity 

at H700 a couple more rounds of inconsequential rain showers is not 

completely out of the question for Monday morning. Better precip 

chances return late Monday into early Tuesday with the previously-

mentioned, mid to upper level low over the western Canadian coast 

splitting into separate systems and the southern low transiting 

across the Great Plains. No severe weather is anticipated at this 

time given the very weak instability. Precip chances also linger 

into Wednesday as the system continues its track to the 

east/southeast. At the surface, the associated low will drag a 

surface front through the area ushering in a drier air mass as our 

winds shift to north for the second half of this week. As a result, 

cloud coverage will decrease going into Thursday morning, 

potentially setting the stage for efficient radiational cooling. A 

similar set up (mostly clear skies, weak-ish winds, and low temps 

near freezing) remains in place into the weekend which could result 

in daily increased frost potentials for the second half of this week 

as morning lows dip into the mid to upper 30s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



IFR cigs with lgt fog reducing vis to 4SM-5SM is expected thru

20Z-23Z when fog will dissipate and cigs lift to low MVFR blw

2kft. Winds will be out of the east btn 5-10kts thru the TAF 

pd.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Collier

AVIATION...73