FXUS63 KEAX 221948

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

248 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Gusty North Winds Continue Sunday Evening



- Temperatures Rebound Through The Week



- Rain Showers Thursday and Friday



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Cold front has pushed through the bulk of the forecast this area 

afternoon. The most notable feature has been the strong northerly 

winds, with gusts between 35 and 40 MPH for much of this afternoon. 

Mid-level flow is mostly zonal, with strongest flow across the 

northern third of the CONUS. Surface cyclone center as of 20z is 

near the western edge of the Ohio River Valley. Mid-level ridge axis 

is moving toward the Northern Rockies, promoting a dAVA regime 

across the Northern Plains and the upper Midwest. This is developing 

a surface anticyclone that is progged to expand much of the upper 

Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Surface pressure rises may extend 

southward into the lower Missouri River Valley. This will maintain a 

strong pressure gradient even as we head into the evening hours. 

Winds are not expected diminish until overnight. Temperatures will 

continue to steadily drop with continued CAA. Persistent 

northwesterly flow will continue CAA through much of Monday, keeping 

high temperatures generally in the 50s, though some 60s may occur 

south of Interstate 70. A few models have been hinting at light rain 

or sprinkle activity, especially across northern Missouri where a 

weak mid-level disturbance may flow downstream from the ridge axis 

from the northwestern CONUS. Boundary layer will remain quite dry 

though, limiting any substantial measurements if any rain is seen at 

all. 



Tuesday, H5 high strengthens again across the desert southwest and 

will help to amplify a mid-level ridge across the western CONUS 

again, while 850mb thermal ridge develops and beings to move 

eastward. This will also force the surface anticyclone into the 

Great Lakes Region, away from the lower Missouri River Valley. 

Deterministic model solutions are showing some pockets of higher 

vorticity in the mid-levels that may generate some weak lift, 

developing mid-level cloud cover. GEFS and other ensemble suites are 

showing increased, though still fairly low, probabilities for some 

type of light or sprinkle activity on Tuesday, again mainly focused 

across Northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Have went ahead and 

added a mention of isolated sprinkles across the northern forecast 

zones, though QPF will be quite limited at the boundary layer 

remains dry due to a lack of low-level moisture return. Through 

Wednesday and Thursday, WAA ramps up as a 590dam high sets up over 

the southwestern CONUS and shifts the 850mb thermal axis eastward. 

Ensemble guidance continues to favor a push solidly into the 80s 

across much of the forecast area Wednesday into Thursday.



Toward the end of the work week, a stronger H5 short-wave is 

expected to suppress the ridging regime across the Central CONUS and 

bring a strong cold front across the region. Better moisture return 

throughout the day on Thursday will set the stage for widespread 

precipitation on late Thursday through most of Friday, also bringing 

cooler temperatures by Friday evening, depending on the speed of the 

cold front. There is some instability across the warm-sector ahead 

of this system, but right now most model guidance caps the warm-

sector, so uncertain at this time if there is any appreciable strong 

thunderstorm threat with this activity. Then next weekend, model 

consensus if weak with respect to how far east the cyclone moves 

away from the area, as well as another ridge developing over the 

western CONUS. If the cyclone does not move far enough east, there 

may be enough forcing and lingering moisture for more light rain 

over the weekend. However if the ridge axis is able to push further 

eastward and provide a strong dAVA regime, the weekend could and 

warmer.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



The cold front is passing through, shifting the winds northerly.

Wind gusts above 30 kts are possible through this afternoon. VFR

ceilings will come and go through the afternoon and evening.

Winds will start to diminish during the overnight hours.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Krull

AVIATION...Krull