FXUS63 KEAX 220636 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 136 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler today with strong northerly winds of 25-30 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. - Elevated fire weather conditions due to the strong winds. - Next chance for precipitation comes late this week, with the best chances coming late Thursday - Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 The very strong upper-level ridge has weakened some and broadened out as faster upper-level flow and several waves suppress it. One of those waves will track across the Central Plains today and help to push a cold front southward through the area. That front is currently situated from central Nebraska eastward through central Iowa. Temperatures north of the front are in the 50s and 60s. As that front moves southward through the area today, winds will increase from the north. Along and behind the front, the pressure gradient increases substantially, with models showing 40-50 microbar/km. This suggest sustained winds should be in the 25-30 mph range for several hours after the front moves through. Forecast soundings show winds at the top of the top of mixed-layer around 35kts over far eastern KS and MO. So wind gusts to 40 mph at times look possible. Overall, it looks windy, but it also looks like we'll not see winds strong enough for a Wind Advisory. Ensemble probabilities seem to confirm the marginal nature of this with low or even no probability for sustained winds of 30 mph or stronger and gusts 45 mph or stronger. While we won't be as dry as yesterday, when humidity values bottomed out in the 15-20% range, we should still see minimum humidity values in the 30-40% range. With winds gusting 30-40 mph at times this afternoon, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will exist across the region. Temperatures will be near-normal Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures then trend warmer through Thursday as upper ridging reestablishes itself over the Southwest and spreads eastward through the middle of the week. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will climb into the mid 80s as a result. 90 degree readings can't be ruled out Thursday either as there may be some compressional warming ahead of another cold front moving through the area. That front will bring our next chance for precipitation late Thursday into the day Friday. Temperatures return to normal Friday and Saturday as cooler air settles into the region behind the front. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 VFR conds are expected to prevail with sct-bkn high clouds fcst thru the pd. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the south btn 10-15kts with a few gusts to 20-25kts poss btn thru 10Z. The cold front is fcst to mov thru the TAF sites btn 11Z-13Z shifting winds to the north btn 7-12kts. Winds will further incr out of the north to aft 15Z-17Z to 20-25kts with gusts 30-35kts. Winds will begin to subside aft 23Z-01Z remaining out of the north around 15kts with gusts around 25kts . && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...73