FXUS63 KEAX 120917

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

317 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Accumulating snowfall possible for north/northeast MO Saturday 

morning/afternoon. Snowfall accumulations may range from a dusting 

to 3 inches primarily for areas north of HWY-36 and east of I-35.



- Bitterly cold temperatures expected starting Sunday AM.

  Widespread below zero wind chills in the morning with highs

  ranging from the preteens to mid 20s.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



A mostly quiet day anticipated for today with cooler temperatures 

than yesterday. Highs today will range in the 30s to low 40s as we 

maintain northerly windflow on the backside of a weakening surface 

low in southeast MO. The synoptic pattern is defined by a broad, mid 

to upper level ridge with its axis just off the Pacific Coast. A 

closed H500 low just entering Manitoba will continue to track to the 

southeast towards the Great Lakes Region. A few disturbances around 

H500-H700 out ahead of this closed low, collocated with a band of 

moisture will result in some mid and upper level clouds sticking 

around through most of the day.



Going into Saturday, the pattern shifts eastwards as the mid to 

upper level ridge moves over the western U.S. and the closed H500 

low passes through the Great Lakes Region. A H500 shortwave moving 

along the eastern edge of the ridge will eject out of the Northern 

Plains early Saturday morning. This will aid in setting up an area 

of frontogenesis from H850-H700 that will track to the southeast 

through the region. All of these features will be located within a 

right-rear quadrant of the jet which will increase ascent. As it 

moves through the area Saturday morning into the afternoon, light to 

moderate snow will be possible primarily for north and northeastern 

MO. The most favorable areas for accumulating snowfall seem to be 

north of HWY-36 and east of I-35. Model soundings indicate deep 

dendritic growth zones in northeast MO which could suggest the 

potential for 15 to 20:1 snow ratios yielding a drier snowfall. QPF 

values around a tenth of an inch, coupled with these ratios indicate 

snowfall accumulations from 1-3 inches for most favorable areas 

(north of a line from Mercer to Macon counties). This falls in line 

with the LREF as probabilities significantly diminish for 24-hr 

snowfall accumulations greater than 3 inches. Better forcing and 

colder temperature profiles (higher snow ratios) remain farther to 

the north/northeast of our CWA. Snow chances taper off by the 

afternoon. 



As a surface high descends into ND, our winds remain out of the 

north. CAA will allow temperatures to continue to trend cooler for 

Saturday. Highs will range from the teens to upper 30s. Areas that 

receive snow will be on the lower end of that range as the freshly-

fallen snow will likely impede daytime heating. Late Saturday into 

Sunday as the surface high approaches our area, skies will clear out 

and winds will weaken as the pressure gradient relaxes. This will 

set the stage for radiational cooling which will allow early morning 

Sunday temperatures to range from below zero to single digits (the 

coldest temperatures of the season to this point). Widespread below 

zero wind chills are expected with a few areas near Putnam, 

Schuyler, and Adair counties possibly reaching cold weather advisory 

criteria. We will continue to monitor trends to determine the 

necessity for headlines. Highs for Sunday range from the preteens to 

mid 20s.



Fortunately, these bitterly cold temperatures will be short-lived as 

the mid to upper level ridge continues to shift eastward. Higher 

heights coupled with southerly winds will allow us to rebound fairly 

quickly for Monday. Highs return much closer to seasonal averages, 

ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. Temperatures continue to 

warm, peaking at widespread 50s to low 60s by mid-week. A few low-

end chances for precip return for the second half of next week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1055 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025



A brief stratus deck is now looking like it will pass through

the TAF sites around midnight through the early morning hours

Friday. This is noted on upstream observations and satellite

imagery over southwest IA/southeast NE. They should arrive at

STJ around midnight and only offset by a couple hours as the 

cloud deck sags southward. Otherwise, fairly quiet flying 

conditions anticipated with this issuance with winds remaining 

at or below 10 kts.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Collier

AVIATION...Cooley