FXUS63 KEAX 091725 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1225 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with warming temperatures through the weekend. - A marginal chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Greater chances late next week. - Temperatures look to warm well into the 80s next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A high over low setup brings a small Rex block to the central CONUS. This has slowed overall transient flow across the CONUS. Clouds continue clearing out of the area as the high pushes southward. Antecedent low level saturation and calm winds behind the boundary may result in areas of patchy fog especially in low lying areas near bodies of water early this morning. Some isolated dense areas are possible. High temperatures today parallel yesterday's as easterly flow over the area keeps the conveyor of warmer air to the west. Much of the region tops out in the low to mid 70s with portions of far NW MO approaching 80 degrees. The axis of this shortwave ridge stalls over the area yielding clear skies for Saturday. Temperatures begin increasing as warm air advection from eastern Montana and wester North Dakota is pushed into the region increasing temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s. Saturday night, the axis of the shortwave ridge stalls over the region and eventually breaks down as it is absorbed into the more dominant northerly jet. Simultaneously, the nocturnal 850mb LLJ assembled across the northern Plains and begins to tap into warmer southern CONUS air. This initiates a significant warming trend the looks to continue well into next week. Moreover, it also signals the break down of the Rex block as a more dominant longwave ridge absorbs the shortwave which when combined with a complementary longwave trough kicks the cutoff low over the Gulf northward Monday into Tuesday. This moves up the next chance of notable precipitation to Monday and Tuesday for much of interior MO. Previous model runs were confident in the cut off low moving northward; however, confidence in precipitation was rather limited. As analysis has improved over successive model runs, guidance suggests the potential for CVA over north central MO as the low moves north. This CVA moves over and area of slightly destabilized air which could initiate showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Convective variables remain rather marginal at this juncture; however, a small fluctuation in warm air and moisture advection could greatly affect the environment ahead of this wave. That said, strong to severe storms do not seem likely as the high end instability and shear values are on the lower end of strong/severe concerns. Long range guidance continues the warming trend. The deep trough to the west looks to slowly progress toward the center of the country pushing more warm air into the area. Highs trend more into the 80s than the 70s next week. Precipitation chances still remain toward the end of next week as short waves eject across the central CONUS; however, in just the last 24 hours the geographical depiction of precipitation has altered fairly dramatically. This is not all that surprising given the large uncertainty brought about by the influence of small shortwaves, especially during extended model time frames. However, this synoptic setup does look to bring more favorable precipitation chances than what is expected Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with light winds mainly out of the east. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...WFO EAX