FXUS63 KEAX 090338

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1038 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Mostly dry conditions with slightly above normal temperatures 

  expected the next 7 days.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



The closed upper level low that brought rain to the area yesterday 

through this morning opened into an open wave today with upper level 

troughing extending from the eastern Great Lakes into the local 

area. This will continue the chance for showers (20-40%) this 

afternoon generally south of I-70. The upper level trough will sink 

south and east of the area tonight as surface high pressure builds 

into the forecast area bringing precipitation chance to an end. 

Surface high pressure will remain in control over the area through 

the weekend as upper level ridging builds over much of the central 

CONUS. This will bring warm and tranquil conditions to he forecast 

area through weekend with highs in the 70s on Friday and highs in 

the mid 70s to lower 80s Saturday and Sunday.



The aforementioned upper level trough by Friday will extend from the 

northeastern CONUS to the Gulf Coast. Friday night/Saturday a closed 

low will develop in the base of the trough along the Gulf Coast and 

become cutoff under the broad upper level ridge over much of the 

central CONUS. Sunday into Monday this closed upper low will drift 

northward up the lower Mississippi River Valley. This will have very 

slight chances (>20%) for bringing a few showers to the extreme 

eastern CWA Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Otherwise temperatures 

will remain slightly above average Monday and Tuesday under 

continued broad upper level ridging with highs in the upper 70s to 

mid 80s. Wednesday, a upper level trough will move through the 

central Rockies with downstream ridging continuing across the 

region. With WAA increasing on the day Wednesday, highs will move 

well above normal in the mid 80s.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



VFR conditions are very likely (>90%) through the forecast. The

HREF continues to show a small chance (<10%) for IFR visibility

due to fog. This potential is greatest in valleys and sheltered

areas and mainly over eastern KS and far western MO, where 

pressure col is situated, leading to light winds. Have not added

any mention of fog to the forecast given low probability of 

occurrence due mainly to the better chance of winds remaining 

around 5kts overnight. Winds increase slightly tomorrow with 

northeasterly winds to 10 kts.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...73

AVIATION...CDB