FXUS63 KEAX 070510

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

1210 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Warming temperatures generally through Saturday then again into 

  next week.



  - Brief cool down Sunday



* Best widespread shower/storm chances appear Saturday PM into

  early Sunday. Strong to severe potential appears low/not 

  currently expected.

  

  - Lesser shower/storm chances Friday PM



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Very broad/expansive area of surface high pressure dominated the 

Plains today, helping yield largely quiet conditions. With the 

center of the high pressure gliding down the Rockies Front Ranges, 

light to modest northerly winds have prevailed locally, helping keep 

temperatures cool and dry. Looking more aloft into the mid-upper 

levels, central CONUS remains within a NW flow regime and multiple 

shortwaves can be seen clearly on GOES WV imagery. Though with an 

abundantly dry air mass below, much ado about nothing, at least 

nothing more than some periods of increased cloud cover. High 

pressure continues to slide southward overnight and eventually more 

eastward over the Southern Plains. This will allow winds to go more 

light/variable for a time overnight before reestablishing out of the 

SW. There is the potential for some patchy frost tonight, mainly in 

rural and cold prone areas, but confidence is limited given the 

expectation for some lingering to periodic mid-high level cloud 

cover in the region. 



While NW flow is notorious for low confidence shortwaves, guidance 

is in pretty good agreement on overall quiet conditions through the 

end of the work week. A compact shortwave looks to pass just N/NE of 

the area Thursday, but could eek out some very light rain in far 

N/NE Missouri. Otherwise, SW/S surface winds continue through this 

time frame and will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 60s to 

70s. By later Friday, a shortwave will help induce and push a 

surface low off the Front Range and eastward along the 

Nebraska/Kansas border. This will signal our next opportunity for an 

rainfall. Warm front appears poised to lift toward/into Southern 

Iowa, keeping precipitation northward and more tied to the cold 

frontal passage for much of the area. Limited moisture return and 

moderate (at best) lapse rates may yield >1000 J/kg SBCAPE within an 

environment of 30-40kts of deep shear. The marginal shear and 

long/skinny CAPE profiles tend not to raise eyebrows. Generally 

expect more generic thunderstorms with the best chance for any 

stronger cores with initial storms before likely lining out 

along/near the front. This generally aligns with the SPC Day 3 

General Thunder and various ML (GEFS or Euro aligned) output. 



Warmer into Saturday with the above cold front not really packing 

any punch and SW flow quickly returning; highs into the low to mid 

80s in many cases. By Saturday evening, a more widespread 

opportunity for thunderstorms remains signaled across synoptic 

guidance, but too does not raise many eyebrows. Current depictions 

suggest surface low struggles to develop and sustain out into the 

Plains, leaving much of the storm potential along a cold front 

dropping southward out of Iowa. Limited MUCAPE (<1000 J/kg), poor 

mid-level lapse rates, and marginal to unsupportive deep shear 

likely yield another round of general thunder storms. Given the 

stronger nature of cold front, Sunday will be briefly cooler with 

highs falling back into the upper 60s to low 70s. 



Into next week, general NW mid-upper level flow continues to blanket 

the central CONUS. Precipitation opportunities appear limited, with 

shortwaves predominantly depicted to pass N/NE of the area. Of more 

confidence though will be additional warming temperatures. Mid-upper 

level height rises and low teens deg C 850mb trying to nose into the 

region may allow temperatures to top out Tuesday. This would likely 

yield 80s across the forecast area with an outside shot at touching 

90 in western areas.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



VFR conditions through the period. Marginally gusty southwest

winds are expected to develop after 15Z. The gusts should drop

off towards sunset Thursday evening. Could see a few cumulus at

4-5K feet develop during peak heating across central MO.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Curtis



AVIATION...BT