FXUS63 KEAX 052036 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 336 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight into early Thursday morning. - Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible. A flood watch is in effect for most of the region. - A few storms could be strong to severe. - Another round of showers and storms will be possible late Thursday night into Friday morning. - Hot and humid conditions are likely for this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Broad mid/upper troughing continues across the north central CONUS, with the stationary front draped from roughly Kirksville through Kansas City as of 3 PM. Meanwhile, SPC mesoanalysis shows 1.8" to 1.9" PWATs in place across the entire CWA with deep warm cloud depths along with 1500 to 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE and 40 to 50 knots of effective shear. Current radar imagery shows showers and a few benign thunderstorms across the region, but with an approaching vort max and the low level jet to ramp up later this evening, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in both coverage and intensity. Most recent CAM guidance suggests two primary focus areas for training thunderstorms and heavy rainfall - northeast Missouri (in the general vicinity of Kirksville, which received heavy rainfall last night and this morning) - and the Kansas City metro. The 12z HREF had probability matched means of roughly 2 inches for portions of the KC metro, with the 18z HRRR continuing to suggest a swath of 1 to 3" possible for the KC metro. Thus, the flood watch has been expanded westward to include the KC metro. Given the excellent set up for heavy rainfall (model guidance suggests PWATs could increase over 2" by tonight), would not be surprised to see a few localized areas pick up 3+ inches of rainfall between tonight into Thursday morning. In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, a few strong to severe storms will also be possible, with damaging wind gusts likely being the primary threat, and SPC expanded the Day 1 marginal risk further to the north and west to include the KC metro, as well. Showers and storms should exit the CWA to the east by mid to late Thursday morning. However, the stationary front should remain over the region, and with additional perturbations translating through the mid/upper flow and ample moisture remaining, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday night into Friday morning. By Friday and into the weekend, the western ridge re-establishes itself, with a 597 dam H5 high developing over the Four Corners region, yielding increasing mid level heights over our CWA. Afternoon highs should return to the 90s across the CWA for Saturday and Sunday, with max heat indices ranging from the upper 90s to the mid 100s, with generally dry weather likely. Hot and humid conditions should continue into the start of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Patchy showers continue across the region this early afternoon, and will likely linger through mid to late afternoon. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely by around 4z Thursday, with periods of moderate to heavy rain and reduced VIS possible along with MVFR CIGs. Rain should come to an end after 12z Thursday, with MVFR CIGs continuing through the remainder of the morning hours. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning for MOZ013>015-020>023-028>031-037-038-043-044- 054. Flood Watch from 8 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning for MOZ007-008-016-017-024-025-032-033-039-040- 045-046. KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning for KSZ103>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW