FXUS63 KEAX 050926 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 326 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 15-20% chance for light rain/drizzle across northern MO this morning with low clouds building in throughout the day. - Increasing chance for overnight lows at or below freezing Friday night into Saturday morning - Warm and dry conditions return by late this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Current 500 mb analysis shows that the upper level low has progressed slightly to the NE into Wisconsin, while the next mid/upper level low has moved further east into SE Colorado. At the surface, the closed low over the Great Lakes has also shifted slightly to the NE into southern Ontario, allowing for clouds to clear out for most of MO. However, clear skies will be short lived as the 500 mb low over SE Colorado moves into the Southern Plains and a positively tilted upper level trough and surface cold front form across MO. The front will support lift along and behind the boundary and increasing moisture in the vertical profile will allow low level clouds to encompass the region by this afternoon with a slight chance (15-20%) of light rain/drizzle across northern MO this morning. The pressure gradient at the surface will be weak during the day Thursday so while the cold front will bring more northerly flow, it will be weak, making it more difficult to dry out near the surface, keeping clouds around into Friday morning and keeping overnight lows in the low 40s. By Friday, a large amplitude upper-level ridge will be situated over the central US while high pressure builds in from the Upper Midwest at the surface, supporting sustained northerly flow and strong CAA across the CWA. Models continue to trend colder for Friday night into Saturday and show a very favorable setup for dropping below freezing. Models solidly place a surface high over MO by Saturday morning with dewpoints in the low 30s indicating a dry airmass over us that would support ideal radiational cooling. Therefore the current forecast has lows in the upper 20s for north/central MO and low 30s for more urban areas. Low temperatures in addition to light winds would favor frost/freeze conditions. Based on collaboration with neighboring offices and the warm fall that we have had, we will likely issue a freeze warning for areas below 32 degrees and a frost advisory for the remaining areas as we continue to monitor forecast trends. By this weekend, a weak 500 mb over the SW CONUS will shift east towards the Gulf and continue to weaken as a low amplitude ridge settles across the northern half of the CONUS. This will keep conditions dry for early next week as highs increase back into the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 Main concern within the TAF period revolves around MVFR ceilings. Model/guidance trends have pointed towards the return of an MVFR cloud deck to the area, and would affect all TAF sites. The arrival of the MVFR will be from the north, yielding KSTJ first. At this time have first MVFR mentions by around 14z at KSTJ and then 17z-18z for the KC Metro sites. Given trends and various model soundings, once the deck sets in, it may stick around through the remainder of the TAF period. Otherwise, winds shift more northwesterly to northerly after 12z with sustained winds around 10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...IPC AVIATION...Curtis