FXUS63 KEAX 031944

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

244 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Seasonable temperatures in the upper 80s (give or take a few 

  degrees) into early next week.



- Conditions should be mostly dry through Friday evening. Storm

  chances return late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

  No severe weather is anticipated at this time.



- An additional round of storms is possible late Saturday into Sunday.

  Some of the strongest storms could produce a few strong wind 

  gusts and brief periods of heavy rainfall.



- An unsettled pattern is expected early next week with multiple chances

  for storms, with high uncertainty on timing and impacts.





&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Mid to upper level ridging over the Great Plains continues to move 

eastward today. The accompanying surface high remains to the east of 

the area which has resulted in southerly winds slowly increasing low-

level moisture. Expect gradually more humid conditions through the 

Fourth of July as the southerly surface flow continues. Highs for 

tomorrow range in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the 

upper 60s to low 70s. Heat indices will mainly range in the 90s.



Late Friday into Saturday, a 25-35 kt H850 low-level jet (LLJ) 

intensifies across eastern KS and western MO out ahead of an 

approaching weak shortwave trough moving into the region by 

Saturday. This will help to increase moisture transport and low 

level convergence initiating a few storms mainly for eastern KS and 

western MO, but the timing of these phenomena producing sufficient 

lift for convection appears to be well after dark (i.e., after most 

Independence Day-related festivities). HREF guidance shows less than 

a 15% chance for storms to develop Friday afternoon, for example. 

Cannot rule out an isolated storm completely during the afternoon 

and evening, but widespread convection seems rather unlikely.



Severe weather seems unlikely with this first elevated chance of 

storms (mainly late Friday night into Saturday morning). Limited 

shear (0-6 km bulk shear values less than 20 kts) and poor diurnal 

timing point to short-lived, disorganized storms. DCAPE values 

exceed 1,000 J/kg Friday afternoon, but rapidly drop off Friday 

night via nocturnal cooling, when overall potential for convection 

increases. PWATs ranging from 1.7-2 inches allude to the potential 

for efficient rain-producing storms, but storms may be rather weak 

by the time they occur in our area.  



As a weak surface front moves through the area late Saturday into 

Sunday, it could provide enough forcing to develop storms. Severe 

chances look better (although still very marginal) late Saturday 

into Sunday. Instability improves (CAPE to around 1,500-2,000 J/kg), 

but shear is still very limited which will keep storms disorganized 

and short-lived. The primary threats will be a few strong wind gusts 

and brief periods of heavy rainfall. Storms are anticipated to be 

progressive and/or short-lived enough to limit any flooding concerns.



Mid to upper level ridging remains dominant in the southwest U.S. 

for the start of next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled for 

us as multiple shortwaves move through the flow on the northeastern 

periphery of the ridge. This could make for a more active weather 

pattern providing several chances for storms (perhaps via mesoscale 

convective systems, as multiple deterministic models suggest today). 

However, uncertainty remains high at this point, given this 

pattern's overall predictability. The NBM keeps up to a 35% chance 

for showers and storms through next Wednesday. As for temperatures, 

highs remain fairly seasonable (maybe a few degrees above) staying 

in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices notstraying too far 

from the forecast temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period. Winds 

will remain weak and out of the south. Some diurnal cu has begun to 

develop so, placed a FEW035 group. Tomorrow morning into the 

afternoon, occasional gusts to 15-18 kts are anticipated with 

daytime heating.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Collier

AVIATION...Collier