FXUS63 KEAX 022020

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

320 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Heat and humidity continues through the end of the week with highs 

in the low 90s and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.



-Shower and thunderstorms chances are expected Friday mainly after 

sunset in overnight. Chances will be less than 20% through the 

evening then increase to 50-60% overnight



-Additional chances of showers and thunderstorms expected over the 

weekend into next week with temperatures in the upper 80s.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Today marks the start of a warming pattern as we head into the 

weekend. Right now, mid to upper level ridging has amplified over 

the Rockies. This has allowed for the return of southerly flow at the 

surface and gradual moistening of the bounday layer over the next 

few days with open Gulf flow. Today will be the warmer, with highs 

across the area reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. The one good 

thing today is that moisture will take some time to settle in, so 

humidity looks manageable today and dewpoints mainly in the lower 

60s. 



Heading into Thursday, the ridge becomes more centered over our area 

and temperatures once again climb into the low 90s for most. Winds 

will remain out of the south with mainly sunny skies. Compared to 

Wednesday though, Thursday will be a bit more uncomfortable with 

dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 60s across the area. 

Unfortunately, these conditions will push the heat index into 

the mid to upper 90s.



On Friday we will continue to see hot and humid conditions through 

much of the day. Partly cloudy skies and highs reaching the low 90s 

are expected by the afternoon. With southerly flow bringing moisture 

into the area, dewpoints are expected to surge to the upper 60s and 

low 70s across the forecast area. So we can expect for a somewhat 

uncomfortable afternoon for those planning to be outdoors. Heat 

indices will range from the mid to upper 90s, although though in the 

KC Metro may even see values approaching 100 Friday afternoon. Since 

many likely have outdoor plans on Friday, as a reminder, take 

frequent breaks in the shade and stay hydrated. Heat exhaustion can 

happen quickly if precautions are not taken. Heading into Friday 

evening, a shortwave trough will traverse the ridge bringing the 

return of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though there 

is still some time to sort out the details, most models have come 

into agreement that this activity would be moving into our

western forecast area primarily after sunset with chances 

increasing more during the overnight. This activity is expected 

to slide to the east Friday night into Saturday. At this point 

models suggest most locations stay dry through any evening 

festivities, although it will be something to monitor as the 

time gets closer. Severe storms are not expected at this time. 



Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the 

weekend as additional shortwaves pulse through the forecast area. 

The upper pattern becomes a bit more undefined over the weekend 

into next week, with multiple rounds of shortwaves moving across the 

forecast area bringing additional chances for showers and 

thunderstorms. Temperatures look to remain near normal in the upper 

80s through this time period. 



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period with winds

remaining out of the south.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...WFO EAX

AVIATION...WFO EAX