FXUS63 KDVN 221910

AFDDVN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL

210 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



-  A warming trend through mid-week followed by a late week 

   cool down, then another warming trend begins over the 

   weekend.



- Thursday into Friday is the only time frame that has a chance

  for rain but the trend in those chances is slowly decreasing.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Outside of a narrow moist layer around 875 mb, the atmosphere is 

quite dry up through H5 hPa. The prospects of isolated sprinkles or 

even a shower are not great but will keep the current 15-20% rain 

chances east of the Mississippi through the afternoon.



Otherwise, the windy conditions will begin to subside with sunset as 

the boundary layer re-stabilizes. A further decrease in winds will 

continue overnight as high pressure builds into the western Great 

Lakes.



Sunshine Monday morning will slowly give way to clouds during the 

afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves east from the 

Plains. Temperatures the next 36 hours look to be close to normal 

for late March.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Monday night through Wednesday night

Assessment...Very high (>90%) confidence of a warming trend



After a cool Monday, return flow will bring a warming trend through 

mid-week with temperatures going well above normal.



A weak upper level disturbance moving through the area Monday night 

could bring some sprinkles. However, the sub-cloud layer is very dry 

so the probability of even sprinkles occurring is 5-10%.



As expected, the model consensus has trended dry with the weak 

upper level disturbance moving through the area Wednesday 

afternoon/night, Like the Monday night system, the sub-cloud layer

is extremely dry.



Thursday through Friday

Assessment...low (20-30%) confidence on rain chances



Thursday will be the warmest day of the weak ahead of a passing low 

and associated cold front. Temperatures look to range from near 70 

in the far north to lower 80s in the far south. Records for March 

26th are 80-85; not entirely unreachable but could be challenged 

given the extremely dry ground and the increasing probability of 

diurnal temperatures swings that could exceed 30 degrees.



Given the synoptic set-up the better forcing is behind the cold 

front, thus precipitation would be post-frontal. The model consensus 

has 20-30% chances for rain across the entire area on Thursday then 

the same chances south of I-80 Thursday night. The overall trend 

with pops has been to lower them around 5% since yesterday.



Like the previous front, the bulk of the moisture being supplied is 

from the remnants of an atmospheric river that comes onshore in the 

Pacific northwest Tuesday. Thus moisture will be in the mid and high 

levels of the atmosphere. Forecast soundings show low level moisture 

is extremely limited or not there at all. If this scenario is 

correct, then the passage of the front may be marked by an increase 

in clouds with potentially post frontal sprinkles or isolated 

showers.



Friday night through Sunday

Assessment...High (>80%) confidence of another warm-up for the

weekend



After a slightly below normal Friday/Friday night in temperatures, 

southerly flow develops Saturday signaling another warm-up for the 

area.



There are weak disturbances moving through the area in the flow 

aloft; one Saturday night and another Sunday afternoon/evening. 

However, the lower atmosphere is quite dry with the Gulf just 

starting to open up on Sunday. Thus the model consensus has dry 

conditions for the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Current MVFR CIGS that have moved into northeast Iowa and

northern Illinois are not being handled well by the models. Low

level flow will likely push the 2-3 kft AGL CIGS closer to I-80

through 00z/23 before getting shunted off to the east. This may

or may not impact KCID/KMLI. Low level mechanical turbulence 

from gusts up to 25 knots will cease with sunset as the boundary

layer stabilizes. After 02z/23 winds will continue to slowly

decrease to around 10 knots as high pressure builds into the

Midwest.



&&



.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IA...None.

IL...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...08

LONG TERM...08

AVIATION...08