FXUS63 KDVN 091950 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 250 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather through the weekend with warming temperatures and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. - Rain chances return toward the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 High pressure is expected to shift south and east of the area this afternoon into the overnight. At the same time, a cold front is expected to sag south into the area overnight into Saturday. Ahead of this cold front, WAA is expected to bring warmer temps into the area for Saturday. The cold front is expected to stall just north of the area. The cooler air looks to remain north and east of the area. That said, our far NE may only see highs in the low to mid 70s Saturday while everywhere else is expected to see temps in the low 80s. Dewpoints in the low 50s to upper 40s means that Saturday looks to be quite a nice day across the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025... Long term AFD still looks good. Main story is active weather returns next week, but details are hard to ascertain at this time. Prev Disc. Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025... As we get into next week there is good agreement in the deterministic and ensembles of a pattern change to a broad trough in the western CONUS. The developing SW flow aloft will help to lift the remnant Lower Mississippi Valley low northward to bring a shower or storm chance (20-40%) by Tuesday, especially in the afternoon which could linger through Tuesday evening. This looks like just the beginning of potentially an unsettled stretch of weather, as some of the western energy is ejected into the central CONUS mid to late next week allowing for some Gulf moisture fetch and daily rain chances (20-40%) Wednesday through Friday. There's plenty of spread in various ensembles on the timing/track of this energy, so expect further refinement on location/timing of PoPs. One thing even at this range it would appear that there should also be plenty of dry time. Various machine learning guidance also suggests there could be some severe weather potential, but seeing as this is still nearly a week away skill is not particularly high. Nonetheless, it's something to keep an eye on after we get past this upcoming great weekend of weather! Be sure to enjoy it, as besides potentially turning more active mid to late next week it will also probably feel more summery with the increase in moisture to go along with h85 temperature anomalies of +6 to +10c above average supporting well above average highs (possibly our first 90F for some during this stretch?). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the period. A subtle wind shift is possible, however no sig weather impacts to aviation expected. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs/McClure AVIATION...Gibbs