FXUS63 KDVN 091013 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 513 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...Updated for 12z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend for the weekend with unseasonably warm temperatures for much of next week. - Rain chances return toward the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Deterministic guidance and ensembles are in good agreement on building a broad upper level ridge into the region through the weekend, as a developing upper low meanders about the Lower Mississippi Valley. This rex block will keep the pattern stagnant, but this just means high pressure will park itself across the region for a while and provide a continuation of the fantastic weather through the weekend. Neutral thermal advection today will lead to fairly similar highs from those of Thursday, albeit a smidge cooler for some locations due to a colder start, but a fantastic recovery to highs near 70/ lower 70s with the abundant sunshine and dry air making for near perfection! Going through the weekend, modification of the dry airmass will support widening diurnals with warming days and 80s becoming more common for highs, while at night the dry air will cool efficiently leading to lows in the 40s/50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 As we get into next week there is good agreement in the deterministic and ensembles of a pattern change to a broad trough in the western CONUS. The developing SW flow aloft will help to lift the remnant Lower Mississippi Valley low northward to bring a shower or storm chance (20-40%) by Tuesday, especially in the afternoon which could linger through Tuesday evening. This looks like just the beginning of potentially an unsettled stretch of weather, as some of the western energy is ejected into the central CONUS mid to late next week allowing for some Gulf moisture fetch and daily rain chances (20-40%) Wednesday through Friday. There's plenty of spread in various ensembles on the timing/track of this energy, so expect further refinement on location/timing of PoPs. One thing even at this range it would appear that there should also be plenty of dry time. Various machine learning guidance also suggests there could be some severe weather potential, but seeing as this is still nearly a week away skill is not particularly high. Nonetheless, it's something to keep an eye on after we get past this upcoming great weekend of weather! Be sure to enjoy it, as besides potentially turning more active mid to late next week it will also probably feel more summery with the increase in moisture to go along with h85 temperature anomalies of +6 to +10c above average supporting well above average highs (possibly our first 90F for some during this stretch?). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 510 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 No concerns for aviators during the period with light winds and VFR conditions. A wind shift from SW to NW will occur toward the end of the TAF period into mid Saturday morning with a weak cool frontal passage. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ002. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...McClure