FXUS63 KDVN 090411 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1111 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 ...Updated for 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend for the weekend and lingering through next week with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. - Rain chances return early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Northeasterly flow continues through the overnight as the area transitions into being under a ridge. Dry conditions persist for the short term period. With mostly clear skies this afternoon and sustained northeast winds of 15 to 20 mph, conditions are good for deeper mixing to occur, which could lower dewpoints and relative humidities as a result. The mostly clear skies linger through the overnight and paired with the light northeast winds, temperatures overnight will get down into the low to mid 30s across the northern portions of the CWA. There is some patchy areas of frost currently in the forecast as we get closer to sunrise for these areas. Confidence is higher that more widespread frost will be possible in northern portions of Illinois that includes Stephenson county and as a result, a Frost Advisory is now in place between 06Z and 13Z Friday morning. Heading into Friday, we shift to northwesterly flow as the ridge moves over the region. High temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, mostly clear skies, and light and variable winds, will make Friday a beautiful day to end the work week! && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to be in good agreement that the ridge will be over the area into at least next Tuesday. High temperatures from Saturday to Tuesday are ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s. Compared to previous NBM runs, confidence is increasing that highs across the CWA reach above 80 degrees. The latest 07Z NBM data has between a 50 and 70% chance that highs reach above 80 degrees from Saturday to Monday, with slightly lower probabilities for Tuesday. Precipitation chances return on Tuesday as an upper level low comes up from the north into the Ohio River Valley. As it does, a wave of energy from this low progresses northwestward towards the Mid and Upper Mississippi River regions. Ensemble data also supports this as around 50% of all ensemble members have some measurable precipitation Tuesday. Current NBM guidance continues to increase PoPs as it now shows a 20 to 30% PoP for areas along and east of the Mississippi River. Another precipitation chance arrives Thursday and Friday as a low treks across the northern Plains. While the precipitation chance is currently low, around 20%, ensemble guidance is already honing in on a low moving into the central US by Thursday and shifting eastward by Friday. Confidence in transitioning to a more active pattern is increasing as many members of the EPS and GEFS have measurable rain after next Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Fantastic conditions will persist for aviators during the period with light winds and unlimited ceilings. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Friday for ILZ002. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cecava LONG TERM...Cecava AVIATION...McClure