FXUS63 KDVN 030744 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 244 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low-end chances for storms this afternoon and into the early evening, with an isolated severe threat. If we get storms to develop, the main hazard will be severe winds. - Fourth of July is forecast to be quite toasty, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s and increasing humidity. - Active pattern this weekend and beyond, as southwest flow kicks in, increasing temperatures and moisture. Thus, very warm conditions return, with increasing chances for showers/storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Upper ridge builds west of the area today, with amplifying upper level northwesterly flow. This will guide a weak wave through the area today. LLVL winds will generally be southwesterly, feeding more moisture and warmer temperatures into the area. Thus, if convective temperatures are reached today, we may see isolated to widely scattered showers/storms develop as the wave passes through, especially with LLVL lapse rates being between 9.0-9.5 C/Km. As has been the case in previous forecast packages, this is not captured well amongst guidance. Thus, it is probably safe to say that most should remain dry today, as coverage of any storms that develop will be low. Storms that do develop may become strong to severe, as instability will be moderate, given strong surface heating, with CAPE between 2500-3500+. This would allow any storm to go up rather quickly, developing a quick/robust updraft, with LLVL dry air favoring evaporative cooling and possible strong downburst winds. Overall, the severe threat seems to be isolated. Thus, this is a low confidence scenario, but cannot be ruled. The SPC continues to highlight areas along and north of Interstate 80 in a Marginal Risk, level 1 of 5, for severe weather, highlighting severe winds as the main hazard and hail secondary. The 4th of July continues to look like a warm one, with an upper ridge passing over the area, allowing modest southwesterly flow to kick in. Temps and moisture will continue to increase on Friday, with temperatures reaching the low 90s and dewpoints increasing into the low 70s throughout. Current forecast favors the potential for heat indices upwards to 100 for some. With it being a holiday and plenty of outdoor activities planned, it will be best to prepare for the heat in advance, as well as practice heat safety during the day as well. Otherwise, we look to remain dry for the holiday, with a southerly breeze and mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Friday night and beyond will feature an active weather pattern with several waves passing through the region. Hot temperatures and higher humidity through this period will favor near-daily chances for storms. Saturday currently seems to be the day with the best chance for showers/storms, as it features the deepest wave in the period, passing through during the hottest part of the day. Too soon to discuss any severe threat, but it is best to keep in mind that we are now in July and with such heat and humidity, there will be a non- zero threat for strong to severe convection. Beyond Saturday, the near-daily chances for storms will largely be diurnally driven as bouts of energy pass through. Saturday will be the warmest day of this stretch, with low 90s remaining throughout, with mid-upper 80s remaining for the rest of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with light and variable winds to start, becoming south-southwesterly around 5-10 KTs after 15z. There will be low-end chances (<25%) for an isolated shower/storm, mainly at DBQ or CID early in this period, then once again after 18z. Although, confidence remains low and opted to leave out of the TAFs at the moment. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Gunkel