FXUS63 KDMX 100400

AFDDMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Des Moines IA

1100 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated shower in far northwest Iowa possible (<20% chance) 

  this evening could produce gusty wind 



- Warm and dry this weekend and into early next week



- Next chance for showers and thunderstorm mid-late next week



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



High pressure has allowed for tranquil conditions across the area 

today. Only a few scattered clouds have developed in far northwest 

Iowa this afternoon with abundant sunshine and light winds. To the 

north a narrow band of clouds is visible on satellite imagery. This 

is associated with a weak trough across the northern plains and into 

the upper midwest. This is expected to brush far northern Iowa later 

this evening and a few CAMs have indicated light spotty shower 

activity. Confidence is low in this occurrence given extremely 

dry model soundings across the area. Virga seems the most likely

scenario, though a few sprinkles or a light shower may develop.

If so, gusty winds would occur given the very dry air in place 

and propensity for evaporative cooling through the column. 



High pressure dominates through the weekend and into the first half 

of next week. With a cutoff upper level low to the south of the area 

a western US thermal ridge will attempt to override and wrap into 

the area, sending temperatures into the low 80s this weekend. By 

early next week mid to upper 80s are forecast. The average high this 

time of year is right around 70 degrees, so the upcoming warmth will 

be 10-15+ degrees above seasonal normals. Sunday will become breezy 

next week as the pressure gradient tightens over northern Iowa 

well in advance of an approaching western US trough. 



The western US trough will finally reach the central US by the 

middle to end of the week. As is typical at this time range, 

guidance is split on how to handle the evolution so details are

uncertain. What we do know is that the next real window for 

showers and thunderstorms looks to arrive around Wednesday- 

Friday.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



No aviation impacts are anticipated through the TAF period.



&&



.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff

AVIATION...Lee