FXUS63 KDMX 031113 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 513 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flurries mainly over western Iowa at times today and tonight - Turning milder Thursday into next week with the forecast continuing to favor mainly dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 A few snow showers east of I-35 continue to push off to the southeast ahead of the shortwave trough, which is within a broader trough, that is moving through the state early this morning. With this shortwave likely east of our forecast area by daybreak, the stronger snow shower activity will have ended. However, there will be residual weak energy aloft with the broader trough overhead and with low and mid-level clouds persisting, may be able to squeeze out flurries. This has been primarily focused over the western half of the state through the morning hours. Otherwise, temperatures will be near to a bit below normal and similar to yesterday with highs ranging from around 20 degrees over northeastern Iowa to the low 30s over southern Iowa as surface high pressure nudges into the state through the day. With the backside of the broader trough arriving Wednesday morning, models are attempting to bring spurious trace to a few hundredths of QPF over parts of the state. This signal has been there the last several days, but always more muted than what occurred over the last few hours Monday evening. Looking at the forcing, it is rather weak with perhaps some low level theta-e advection, but cross sections outside of the RAP show little if any lift. Ice introduction may be challenged as well with drier air filling into the layer resulting in freezing drizzle; however, looking at soundings this drier air may just turn off the precipitation as the depth of saturation lessens quickly. Therefore, have opted for just flurries after midnight tonight into Wednesday morning with any snow accumulation a dusting. The story as we move beyond normal February temperatures on Wednesday will be above normal temperatures into early next week with mainly dry conditions. Our flow in the mid and upper levels will remain from the northwest through the end of the week if not the weekend, but as ridging amplifies over the western US this shoves the storm track far enough east so that precipitation chances stay east of Iowa. With heights rising, temperatures will also respond upward, especially on Thursday with southwesterly surface flow with highs reaching into the 50s over western Iowa and well into the 30s or 40s over much of central Iowa. A cold front will move through on Friday bringing breezy winds during the day and causing temperatures to step back down several degrees Friday into the weekend, but still above normal. The Canadian and NAM both show light QPF on Friday. This is likely a result of lapse rates steepening and developing low level instability per NAM and GFS soundings as cooler air arrives behind the front. Question at this point will be if the moisture will overlap with these lapse rates to generate showery precipitation. Another window to monitor will be Sunday as deterministic GFS and ECMWF show a shortwave trough riding into the region with sufficient forcing for QPF. Ensemble means and cluster analysis do not show a signal for this shortwave so forecast remains dry over the weekend for now. With our upper level flow becoming more southwesterly or westerly early next week, temperatures will once again move upward with highs into the 40s common on Monday and Tuesday. With multiple days of high temperatures above 40 degrees, mainly over western and southern Iowa, will have to monitor rivers as ice may begin to break up. The caveat here is that while there are deep frost depths to support efficient runoff, there is no snowpack or rainfall over these areas to runoff to contribute additional flow to what is already low streamflow. Thus, will see to what degree ice may break up from primarily temperatures alone. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 While there are plenty of clouds over the state at the start of the period, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail. Any MVFR ceilings are over western Iowa and should stay in those areas or points farther west. A few flurries may fly this morning or late tonight with the relative highest chances at FOD, but not expecting any impact from these flurries. Winds will be under 10 knots through the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ansorge AVIATION...Ansorge