FXUS63 KDLH 272018

AFDDLH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Duluth MN

318 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Widespread light rain is expected to build east into north

  central Minnesota tonight, but halt its eastward progress

  before reaching the Arrowhead or northwest Wisconsin. The rain

  will continue through Tuesday and taper off Tuesday evening. 



- Above normal temperatures today cool to near normal for the

  rest of the week.



- Additional opportunities for spotty precipitation return late

  week and into the weekend. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



The most impactful weather of the period is expected tonight

into Tuesday evening with a soaking rain across north central 

MN. Surface observations and radar returns indicate some light 

rain or drizzle occurring across northwest MN, but the bulk of 

the rain this afternoon remains across central and eastern ND. 

Much of the Northland is experiencing gusty southeast winds, 

mostly sunny skies, and temperatures near 60. Clouds are 

beginning to increase across north central MN, but so far remain

west of International Falls and Brainerd.



Broad troughing across the north central U.S. will dig 

southeast into the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley 

tonight and Tuesday. As it does so, surface low pressure will 

develop over the Mid South and the eastward advancing cold front

across the northern Plains will become stationary over MN. 

Pwats will reach about 225 percent of normal along the front, 

along with good forcing. Steadier showers and light rain will 

develop across western MN this evening, then spread east and 

become better organized along the front overnight across north 

central MN. The band will then halt any eastward progress due to

the stalling of the front and dry air advection in WI from the 

surface high pressure centered in Quebec. Deterministic models 

and their ensembles, hi-res CAMs, and AI models are in generally

good agreement now despite some recent shifting of the band, so

confidence is higher. PoPs have been increased across north 

central MN and reduced in WI with a tight gradient in rain 

potential expected near I-35. Rainfall totals will likely range 

from a half inch to one inch west of INL and BRD, then rapidly 

drop off to minimal amounts in northeast MN and northwest WI. As

the surface low becomes better established over the Mid South 

Tuesday night, the inverted trough across the Upper Midwest will

weaken and high pressure over the Rockies will conjoin with the

high in Quebec. This should end the rain from north to south 

Tuesday evening. 



High pressure will be in place midweek with peeks of sun and

temperatures right around normal. By Thursday, a weak low 

pressure system will be dragged southeast into the Upper Midwest

behind a deep trough in the eastern U.S. While this system is 

not likely to bring much steady precipitation, increased cloud 

cover, a few showers, and perhaps some drizzle in the cyclonic 

flow could linger into Saturday. Can't rule out some snowflakes

at times, but the lack of steadier precipitation would lead to 

very low accumulation risk.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Rainfall has trended to the west, so based on the latest data

DLH should remain dry. Did also replace the VCSH with a Prob30

for rain. 



Skies were mostly clear across the region, but there was a slow

moving system to the west. This system will eventually bring

rain to KINL and KBRD, but could miss KHIB and should miss KDLH. 



Winds will be southeast throughout the TAF period, with gusts 

decreasing overnight.



&&



.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...

Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Southeast winds will increase this evening along the far North

Shore and continue into Tuesday afternoon. Waves of 3 to 5 feet

are expected as well. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect

after 10 PM tonight north of Grand Marais.



For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area

Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.



&&



.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT 

     Tuesday for LSZ140.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Borghoff/WFO MPX

AVIATION...WFO MPX

MARINE...Borghoff/WFO MPX