FXUS63 KDLH 221120

AFDDLH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Duluth MN

620 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Much cooler today with highs in the 30s and 40s with a few 

  scattered snow showers in the morning hours. 



- An active pattern continues this week with oscillating warm 

  and cool temperatures, with light liquid and frozen 

  precipitation chances sprinkled through the forecast. Maybe 

  something more organized Wed/Thu next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Current Conditions:



A cold front has pushed out of the region as of this morning with 

northerly winds streaming in once again. The trailing precipitation 

associated with a ribbon of 700mb FGEN has largely exited the 

region. However, radar and surface observations reveal some 

lingering HCRs over north central MN likely developing below the 

stratus deck as cold air advection leads to a shallow layer of 

instability. This cold air also looks to be producing some 

anthropogenic snow off off the Iron Range. 



Today:



The HCRs that develop last night will be tapering off in the morning 

but we are still keeping an eye on Lake Superior for some potential 

lake convergence bands to develop. With the colder air temperatures 

flowing across the lake once again some lake effect showers will be 

possible along the South Shore. Wind direction still seems to 

be a contested issue among the guidance with models varying by 

30 to 50 degrees. CAMs have certainly backed off their initial 

aggressive signal for precipitation in the Twin Ports and the 

South Shore. We will maintain at least some flurries through the

morning hours. High pressure builds in from the northwest in 

the afternoon helping to clear the skies out. 



Early Next Week:



Monday, high pressure will shuffle to the east through the day with 

return flow out of the south helping to warm temperatures back into 

the upper 40s. Overnight, a low pressure will move across 

central Manitoba into Ontario with its associated cold front 

dipping down through the Northland. We will still have a warm 

nose in the lower level to contend with so an area of mixed 

precipitation will likely be at play. Snow will be favored 

farther north and rain farther south. The front is not expected 

to stall with precipitation exiting Tuesday morning. Total 

accumulations at this time are minimal for both rain and snow. 



Midweek Outlook:



A warm front looks to advance into the Upper Midwest setting up a 

baroclinic zone over the region leading to continued precipitation 

chances. The best chances look to arrive late Wednesday into 

Thursday as an upper level jet strengthens and moves across the 

Canadian Prairies. This extra divergence aloft will help promote the 

deepening of a low pressure system at the surface. Placement of 

these synoptic features are still highly contested among the 

ensembles so the overall impact of this system at this time remains 

uncertain.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Largely MVFR/IFR ceilings still linger across the Northland as 

northerly winds have settled in over the region. Radar shows very 

minimal activity with a few streamers present over NW WI. High res 

guidance is no longer detecting a lake effect convergent band for 

the morning hours for the Twin Ports. But with the cold air and 

winds turning northeasterly the chance still remains for the DLH to 

see some snow showers, have left it out of the TAF due to low 

confidence though. Ceilings will be slow to improve but high 

pressure is expected to build in this afternoon leading to 

widespread VFR conditions. 



&&



.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...

Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Gusty northeast winds will start to taper offlater this morning but 

wave height will be slow to subside on the South Shore. Small Craft 

Advisories from Sand Island over to Saxon Harbor have been extended 

through 7PM. Once these conditions subside the Lake should be quiet 

until early Wednesday when northeasterly flow ramps up once

again. 



For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 

Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.



&&



.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for 

     LSZ140>142.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ147-

     148-150.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Britt

AVIATION...Britt

MARINE...Britt