FXUS63 KDDC 272200

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

500 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Numerous rain showers with strong cold front passage tonight. 



- Intense north winds Tuesday, gusting 40 to 45 mph. 



- Temperatures at or below freezing Wednesday morning, with

  continued strong northwest winds. Wind chills in the teens and

  20s Wednesday morning. 



- Widespread hard, killing freeze in the 20s Thursday morning. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



20z observations and analysis showed weak, strung out 

cyclogenesis has begun across the northern Plains as a result of

a trough draped across the Rockies and now entering the Plains.

Its attendant cold front is situated across northeast Colorado 

and western Nebraska. This front will move southeastward late 

this evening and through the overnight hours, leading to 

increased POPs and gusty winds along and behind the frontal 

passage. Precipitation chances reach 40-60% chance across much 

of the forecast area through Tuesday morning, with some 

thunderstorm potential existing. Severe weather is not 

anticipated given very meager instability to work with. However,

winds will increase along and behind the front, where a brief 

period of 35-45 mph gusts will be possible with the immediate 

passage, with a brief window of winds subsiding early Tuesday

morning. Winds will increase into later Tuesday morning and

afternoon; sustained 20-30 mph, with gusts 35-45 mph. With 

these gusty winds, and low relative humidity around 20%, an 

elevated fire weather risk could be realized across western 

zones. However, overall thinking any fire risk is generally 

mitigated with recent moisture and rain across the area.



Confidence is increasing for Frost/Freeze conditions to be

realized again this week, especially Wednesday and Thursday 

morning. Have issued a Freeze Watch for portions of southwestern

and central Kansas late Tuesday night and into Wednesday

morning. 13z NBM probabilities of low temperatures <32 degrees (40-70%)

are highest along the KS/TX border, but given strong CAA, could

see the other areas flirting with freezing. Regardless, frost 

is highly likely. Probabilities of <32 degrees expands 

significantly eastward Thursday morning, where most of the CWA 

will be 32 degrees or below, including southeast zones where a 

30-60% chance exists from the NBM probabilities. Given that 

indication, thinking additional Frost/Freeze headlines during 

that timeframe will be needed as well. Outside of the 

Frost/Freeze, clear weather expected from Tuesday onward, with 

no precipitation chances into the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... 

Issued at 500 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Widespread IFR/MVFR stratus persisted across SW KS as of 

22z Mon. Degraded flight categories in stratus will continue for

the next few hours into this evening, before a strong cold front

races through the airports 06-09z Tue. Expect NW winds to

increase sharply after cold front passage, gusting to near 

30 kts overnight. Scattered to numerous rain showers will

accompany the cold front, for a 3-6 hour period, at each

airport. Instability is limited, so only mentioned -SHRA, 

but limited thunder is possible. Strong subsidence will clear

the sky rapidly by sunrise, with VFR/SKC expected through

Tuesday. After 15z Tue, intense north winds will impact aviation

operations, with gusts 38-40 kts, strongest at GCK/LBL. 



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning 

for KSZ065-066-078>080-086>088.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Bennett

AVIATION...Turner/Bennett