FXUS63 KDDC 272012

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

312 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Thunderstorm potential tonight; severe weather not expected



- Gusty winds with cold front passage tonight, persisting into

  Tuesday afternoon



- Elevated fire weather concern Tuesday afternoon with gusty

  winds and low relative humidity across western zones



- Widespread freezing temperatures likely Wednesday/Thursday

  morning



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



20z observations and analysis showed weak, strung out 

cyclogenesis has begun across the northern Plains as a result of

a trough draped across the Rockies and now entering the Plains.

Its attendant cold front is situated across northeast Colorado 

and western Nebraska. This front will move southeastward late 

this evening and through the overnight hours, leading to 

increased POPs and gusty winds along and behind the frontal 

passage. Precipitation chances reach 40-60% chance across much 

of the forecast area through Tuesday morning, with some 

thunderstorm potential existing. Severe weather is not 

anticipated given very meager instability to work with. However,

winds will increase along and behind the front, where a brief 

period of 35-45 mph gusts will be possible with the immediate 

passage, with a brief window of winds subsiding early Tuesday

morning. Winds will increase into later Tuesday morning and

afternoon; sustained 20-30 mph, with gusts 35-45 mph. With 

these gusty winds, and low relative humidity around 20%, an 

elevated fire weather risk could be realized across western 

zones. However, overall thinking any fire risk is generally 

mitigated with recent moisture and rain across the area.



Confidence is increasing for Frost/Freeze conditions to be

realized again this week, especially Wednesday and Thursday 

morning. Have issued a Freeze Watch for portions of southwestern

and central Kansas late Tuesday night and into Wednesday

morning. 13z NBM probabilities of low temperatures <32 degrees (40-70%)

are highest along the KS/TX border, but given strong CAA, could

see the other areas flirting with freezing. Regardless, frost 

is highly likely. Probabilities of <32 degrees expands 

significantly eastward Thursday morning, where most of the CWA 

will be 32 degrees or below, including southeast zones where a 

30-60% chance exists from the NBM probabilities. Given that 

indication, thinking additional Frost/Freeze headlines during 

that timeframe will be needed as well. Outside of the 

Frost/Freeze, clear weather expected from Tuesday onward, with 

no precipitation chances into the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1140 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



IFR conditions will likely be improving to MVFR conditions

throughout the afternoon as CIGs will rise throughout the 

afternoon. Into this evening, wind shift from southerly to

northerly will occur with the passage of a cold front, mainly

from 05-08z. In addition with the wind shift, gusty winds 20-30

knots and the chance for thunderstorms will accompany the 

frontal passage. Per usual, thunderstorm activity will be 

isolated, so chance of a terminal being impacted is low, but 

recent guidance suggest HYS having the greatest potential.



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning 

for KSZ065-066-078>080-086>088.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Bennett

AVIATION...Bennett