FXUS63 KDDC 271017 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 517 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain/thunderstorm chances (40-60%) return tonight. - Slightly warmer temperatures today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 WV imagery indicates a west-northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low pressure is sliding east-southeast through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Rain/thunderstorm chances (40-60%) pick up this evening as the SREF shows the aforementioned upper level trough deepening as it begins to dig more southeast through the Northern Rockies into the Western High Plains today, sending an attendant cold front into western Kansas by late evening. In response, developing low pressure in southeast Colorado will deepen while prevailing south-southeast upsloping continues to draw moisture into central Kansas and much of southwest Kansas ahead of the approaching cold front. As a result, showers and a few isolated thunderstorms (minimal instability present) are expected to develop in an axis of increased forcing associated with the boundary as it moves through later this evening/overnight. The best chance for rain remains generally northeast of a Garden City to Coldwater line where the HREF paints a 50-70% probability for 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by daybreak Tuesday morning. Much drier air will spill south into western Kansas, ending any lingering precip chances across central/south central Kansas by early afternoon. Despite prevailing southerlies, only slightly higher temperatures are forecast across central Kansas where mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected to persist through the day while slightly warmer highs return to extreme southwest Kansas where we could see breaks in the clouds by mid/late afternoon. The latest HREF shows a 50-70% probability of temperatures nudging above 55F in vicinity of the I-70 corridor while it indicates a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F near and along the Colorado line. With that, expect afternoon highs ranging from the mid/upper 50s(F) in central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas to the 60s(F) in far southwest Kansas. Much cooler air will surge southward into western Kansas Tuesday, ending the brief warming trend out west. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 503 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Prevailing low level stratus within a southeasterly upslope flow is expected to begin slowly lifting later this morning, allowing widespread IFR cigs to potentially improve to MVFR generally after 16-18Z in vicinity of KLBL, KGCK, KDDC, and possibly KHYS. IFR cigs are expected to return tonight as the HRRR shows low level stratus lowering/redeveloping westward after sundown. Additionally, ongoing patchy fog may lead to periods of MVFR vsbys through late morning with vsbys then gradually improving. Light south-southeast winds are expected to persist through late evening as a weak lee side trough evolves into surface low in southeast Colorado. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson