FXUS63 KDDC 270718

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

218 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain/thunderstorm chances (40-60%) return tonight.



- Slightly warmer temperatures today.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



WV imagery indicates a west-northwest flow aloft prevailing across 

the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low 

pressure is sliding east-southeast through the Pacific Northwest. 

Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains 

anchored in eastern Colorado.



Rain/thunderstorm chances (40-60%) pick up this evening as the SREF 

shows the aforementioned upper level trough deepening as it begins 

to dig more southeast through the Northern Rockies into the Western 

High Plains today, sending an attendant cold front into western 

Kansas by late evening. In response, developing low pressure in 

southeast Colorado will deepen while prevailing south-southeast 

upsloping continues to draw moisture into central Kansas and much of 

southwest Kansas ahead of the approaching cold front. As a result,

showers and a few isolated thunderstorms (minimal instability present)

are expected to develop in an axis of increased forcing associated

with the boundary as it moves through later this evening/overnight.

The best chance for rain remains generally northeast of a Garden City

to Coldwater line where the HREF paints a 50-70% probability for 6-hr

QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by daybreak Tuesday morning. Much drier

air will spill south into western Kansas, ending any lingering precip

chances across central/south central Kansas by early afternoon.



Despite prevailing southerlies, only slightly higher temperatures

are forecast across central Kansas where mostly cloudy to overcast

skies are expected to persist through the day while slightly warmer

highs return to extreme southwest Kansas where we could see breaks

in the clouds by mid/late afternoon. The latest HREF shows a 50-70%

probability of temperatures nudging above 55F in vicinity of the

I-70 corridor while it indicates a 70-90% probability of temperatures

exceeding 60F near and along the Colorado line. With that, expect

afternoon highs ranging from the mid/upper 50s(F) in central Kansas

and portions of southwest Kansas to the 60s(F) in far southwest

Kansas. Much cooler air will surge southward into western Kansas

Tuesday, ending the brief warming trend out west.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



IFR cigs will persist across central Kansas and portions of southwest

Kansas through much of the period while MVFR cigs continue farther

west as prevailing low level stratus remains locked in across the

region. Additionally, patchy fog developing through daybreak may

lead to periods of MVFR/IFR vsbys. Light south-southeast winds are

expected to persist through late afternoon as a weak lee side trough

of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JJohnson

AVIATION...JJohnson