FXUS63 KDDC 221723 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures to start the workweek - Warming trend midweek followed by another cooldown and strong winds Thursday and Friday - Dry weather pattern through next weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 17Z synopsis shows a longwave trough moving through the northern plains which has dampened the upper level high in the desert southwest and shifted the center back to the west. A strong cold front is now well south into the Texas panhandle with post frontal winds through much of southwest Kansas in the 20-35 mph range and gusts to 50 mph. Winds should diminish during the overnight as a building ridge in the central plains will intensify a surface high in the northern plains. This will relax the pressure gradient and we should see winds relax to 5-10 mph after midnight. With the colder air in place and lighter winds we should see overnight lows fall back into the mid to upper 30s. Monday should be a cooler day as well with the residual cooler air hanging around through much of the day. As the surface high shifts eastward the surface winds should flip back to the south through the day. With a developing lee trough in Colorado wind speeds from highway 83 on west should intensify to 15-25 mph and gusts to 30 by late afternoon. Highs will be in the 60s. Through the mid week the medium term models are in good agreement the surface high in the desert southwest will intensify and shift the polar jet stream back up into the northern plains. We should also have the return of west to southwest wind in the boundary layer and this will help to push temperatures back into the 90s by Wednesday. Thursday the long term ensembles have another dip in the polar jet which will push a strong cold front through western Kansas during the day. Post frontal winds should be strong with the good mixing and we could once again see sustained winds at least 20-30 mph with NBM probabilities of greater than 40 mph wind gusts at 10-20% at this time from Thursday afternoon through Friday. Ensemble QPF forecast continue to keep QPF numbers around 0.00 through next weekend and with the lack of moisture in the forecast the POPs will continue to be around 0% for the next 7 days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Expect to see rounds of high and mid levels clouds this afternoon and again for Monday morning however ceilings should be around 13 kft at the lowest. Winds will stay strong through 01Z with sustained winds at 20-30 kts and occasional gusts of 40+ kts. After 01Z with a surface high pressure building in the winds should diminish during the night to under 10 kts by 12Z. As the high moves to the east we should see the lighter winds start to shift back to the south between 12-18Z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-045- 046-064>066-075>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...Tatro