FXUS63 KDDC 221647

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Strong northerly winds today



- Elevated to critical fire threat today, mainly due to winds

  and dry fuels



- Another warm trend with continued dry pattern



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2026



05z mesoanalysis depicts strong zonal flow across the northern

Plains that is suppressing the ridge that has been influencing

our weather over the past few days. Within this quick zonal 

flow, a subtle shortwave will bring a dry cold front across the 

forecast area later this morning. The main story with this

FROPA will be the strong northerly winds behind it. Winds will

be on the order of 20-30 mph sustained, with gusts as high as 50

mph. HREF probabilities for wind gusts greater than 45 mph

across much of the CWA is 60-90%. The main impact from these

level of winds is increased hazardous driving conditions for

high-profile vehicles, and any unsecured outdoor items can

easily be blown around. With the strong winds today will come an

elevated to critical fire weather risk. More details on that in

the Fire Weather Discussion.



After a brief cooldown today and Monday, the ridge will build 

back into the area. Temperatures will once again soar into the

80s by Tuesday, with 90s reemerging by Wednesday. Thursday's

temperatures are a bit more uncertain as it is contingent upon

the timing of the next cold front. If early in the day,

temperatures will be held at bay, but slower or later will

result in another very warm day. In either case, this FROPA will

be another dry one. Long range models and NBM still struggle to

get any appreciable chances of precipitation into southwest 

Kansas.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.

Expect to see rounds of high and mid levels clouds this

afternoon and again for Monday morning however ceilings should

be around 13 kft at the lowest. Winds will stay strong through

01Z with sustained winds at 20-30 kts and occasional gusts of

40+ kts. After 01Z with a surface high pressure building in the

winds should diminish during the night to under 10 kts by 12Z.

As the high moves to the east we should see the lighter winds

start to shift back to the south between 12-18Z.





&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-045-

046-064>066-075>081-084>090.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Bennett

AVIATION...Tatro