FXUS63 KDDC 122335 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 535 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A quick-hitting arctic air mass will clip southwest Kansas Saturday night into Sunday - Lows early Sunday morning perhaps as cold as NBM 10th percentile (7F at Hays to 11F at Dodge City) - More downslope warming next week with Tuesday and Wednesday the warmest days (flirting with 70 again). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Across SW Kansas, the weather continues to be primarily quiet and benign with little notable weather. Through the length of the period and even beyond, headlines are not expected with no hazardous weather expected in the forecast. The focus weather-wise on the next few days is the cool down this weekend. After yesterday's highs in the 70s (which is 25 degrees warmer than average), highs will drop below normal Sunday. Much of the CONUS is dominated by primarily zonal/northwest flow as a strong low pressure system sweeps across central Canada. Current surface analysis shows little features of note. A temperature gradient has moved through this morning cutting down temperatures significantly as highs today are in the 40-50s as opposed to yesterdays 70s. Yesterday had very warm 850 mb temperatures assisting in the ability for highs to race up. Models have significant CAA moving in both in the low levels and the surface. The CAA will compete with diurnal processes to keep temperatures low bottoming out on Sunday morning with lows in the teens. Even these colder temperatures are in the realm of normal for SW Kansas in meteorological winter. Highs next week are forecast to be primarily in the 50-60s and again potentially the 70s on Wednesday in the far SW Kansas. Discussion over day-to-day temperature fluctuations are ineffectual through the period. Ensembles keep probability chances <5% the next 7 days and beyond up to at least Christmas. Some days, especially Monday through Wednesday, have low relative humidities in the far southwest as low as 10%. Wind gusts may reach up to 20 mph gusts, but overall the fire weather risk remains low. If the weather ends up drier and windier than forecast, fire weather will require more focus. Until that resolves quiet, dry, and non-noteworthy weather is expected with seasonal temperatures through the forecast period and beyond. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 535 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 VFR conditions are expected to primarily prevail across the TAF period. There does exist some patchy fog potential late tonight and into Saturday morning that could lead to a period of MVFR/IFR, but chances for impacful visibility reduction at the terminals is very low, mainly less than 20%. Therefore, mention is left out for now. Winds will mainly be out of the southward direction 5-10 knots tonight and into Saturday morning before winds shift and increase out of the north 10-20 knots late Saturday morning and into the afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...Bennett