FXUS63 KDDC 120950 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 350 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A quick-hitting arctic air mass will clip southwest Kansas Saturday night into Sunday - Lows early Sunday morning perhaps as cold as NBM 10th percentile (7F at Hays to 11F at Dodge City) - More downslope warming next week with Tuesday and Wednesday the warmest days (flirting with 70 again). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Our next cold front, albeit fairly weak, was pushing south across southwest Kansas during the overnight hours. Prevailing winds have become north-northeasterly from Lakin to Garden to Dodge to Medicine Lodge, so we will continue to see weak cold air advection through the morning until the surface ridge axis approaches, at which time winds will become light and variable for the remainder of the daylight hours. Temperatures this afternoon will be a bit of a challenge, as shallow cold air will be difficult to mix out given the time of year and lack of mechanical mixing -- and more importantly, how much of the approaching low level stratus cloud deck scatters out. Several of the high-resolution short term models show a relative minimum in the 2-meter temperature field across southwest Kansas, so given past experience in these situations, have leaned the hourly temps and subsequent high temperature closer to NBM 10th percentile and even colder than that, as stratus cloud will probably be more difficult to scatter out than what the latest HRRR shows. Late tonight into early Saturday, surface winds will veer around to the south by sunrise then quickly to a westerly and northwesterly direction mid to late morning. The latest models now show a rather impressive warm-up during this veering wind process, as this will be a downslope wind ahead of the next (main) cold front. We could have midday/early afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s (except up around Hays) before strong northeast winds develop, bringing in the much colder, arctic air. Nothing has really changed in terms of the duration of this quick-hitting arctic air intrusion into western Kansas, The coldest temperatures will be Sunday morning with lows likely well down into the lower teens with some upper single digits possible closer to central Kansas. Latest NBM 10th percentile does show lows of around 7F at Hays, 11F at Dodge City, and 12F at Liberal, but right now the official forecast reflects NBM 50th percentile which is a few degrees higher. The arctic high will slide east of our area during the day Sunday, and winds will once again become southerly by afternoon. South to southwesterly winds will continue through the night Sunday Night, so early Monday morning lows will be much "warmer" than Sunday morning, and this will be a jumping point for another mild week of weather -- especially Tuesday and Wednesday when it appears afternoon temperatures will once again reach 60s and flirt with 70. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 A wind shift to the north-northeast will be occurring early in this TAF period (already shifted to the NNE at HYS), as a weak cold front ushers in cooler air. Upstream observations were showing MVFR flight category due to stratus in the 2000-3000 foot layer across central Nebraska, and HREF ensemble probabilities show high enough probs of MVFR ceiling reaching HYS late morning to include in the TAF, but this is the only terminal we will bring down to MVFR at this time. BKN-OVC stratus may reach GCK and DDC before scattering out midday, so we will continue to monitor. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid