FXUS63 KDDC 092248 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 548 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry weather is predicted for the next week. - High temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday and then back off into the mid 80s thereafter. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Upper level ridging will gradually build over the high plains over the next several days, resulting in a slow warm up. Highs are forecast to reach into the lower 80s Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday an upper level trough will amplify over the western United States. Ahead of this feature, downslope low to mid level flow will result in warmer highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Highs in the mid 90s are likely across far southwest Kansas Tuesday; and this warm air will spread eastward into south central Kansas by Wednesday. Having been suppressed into the tropics, low level moisture will improve ahead of this feature by Tuesday. However, this will be shallow, residual moisture coming from evapotranspiration to our south where heavy rains have occurred over the past weeks. Additionally, the strongest forcing for ascent will pass well north of Kansas. Mid level temperatures will be very warm, which will inhibit thunderstorm formation. This upper level trough will pass north of Kansas by Thursday and Friday, pushing a weak cold front through Kansas. As a result, high temperatures will fall into the lower 80s Thursday and Friday. Bottom line is that significant rain will be isolated at best. The ensemble means from the ENS, GEPS and GEFS diverge by next weekend and into the week after, with the ENS showing more upper level troughiness over the southwestern states and the GEPS and GEFS being more zonal. Given that ample moisture will have advected into the plains and Midwest by this time, episodes of severe weather are possible somewhere across the plains and Midwest. But there is little skill in trying to pinpoint where the highest chances of t-storms would be so far in advance. For the next week at least, ensemble means indicate chances for measurable precipitation 10% or less. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 547 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds in general should be 12 kts or less with variable directions through 12Z. Winds should become northeasterly during the day on Saturday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Tatro