FXUS63 KDDC 091810

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

110 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A dry and warming trend is expected for the forecast period



- Highs are likely (>60% via ensembles) to reach 90 degrees in

  the middle of next week



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



As the heavy rain producing system has vacated the forecast area, a 

deep column of modest high pressure has moved in and taken residence 

over SW Kansas stretching to the north and west. Ensembles have the 

high staying stagnant at least into the weekend. With that, the 

current weather of light and variable winds with clear skies will 

continue into the next couple days. Stronger (>15 mph) winds won't 

return until the pattern changes on Sunday. For Friday, highs are 

forecast to be in the upper 70s with ensembles giving the 

northeastern and southeastern corners of the CWA a >50% chance for 

highs in the 80s. Previous CAM runs have hinted at the possibility 

for light scattered showers developing near the Oklahoma border 

Friday afternoon, but more recent runs have been more pessimistic on 

the chances mirroring the ensembles <5% chance. With that in mind, a 

very dry stretch is still expected into next week with relief 

possible just beyond the forecast period. 



On Sunday, ensembles depict a low developing and strengthening in 

the upper Rockies. The impact on the forecast area is expected to be 

minimal with the most tangible influence being the strengthening of 

south/southeast winds. Ensembles have a repeat on Tuesday with 

another low developing then ejecting from the Rockies to the north 

of the forecast area. This time the winds will be more southwesterly 

working to advect warmer and drier air to the CWA. Tuesday and 

Wednesday still looking to be the warmest with the whole area having 

a >60% chance to reach 90 degrees on one or both of those days via 

ensembles. Then finally late next Friday, long-ranged ensembles hint 

at a shortwave developing to the west of the CWA and being the best 

chance for rainfall over the next 10 days.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Weak surface high pressure will persist through the period. Northeast

winds at 10 kts will diminish this evening with the loss of 

insolation. VFR conditions are expected to linger.





&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...KBJ

AVIATION...Finch