FXUS63 KDDC 051910

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

Issued by National Weather Service North Platte NE

210 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A few thunderstorms will be possible southwest KS mainly after

  sunset tonight and could linger into Thursday morning



- Much warmer temperatures will return for the weekend with

  mainly dry conditions



- More widespread precipitation chances return Tuesday night



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



Stratus has been persistent across the northern half of southwest Kansas 

in the post cold front environment, holding temperatures down

some through midday, though where clouds have erroded temps have

warmed quickly. The stationary frontal boundary was very 

clearly outlined by surface observations at midday, stradding 

the Kansas/Oklahoma border. August sunshine will continue to 

erode the stratus through the remainder of the afternoon.



Tonight, the stationary front will lift very slowly back

northward as a warm front into southwest Kansas. Moistening at

low and mid levels will result in elevated instability and scattered

thunderstorm development. In generall, rainfall amounts of 

0.10-0.25" will be more common, though isolated amounts closer 

to 0.50" or slightly higher would be possible in the stronger 

storms. Precip chances will be highest along and north of the 

developing mid level frontogenetic region overnight, getting as 

high as 50-60% in those areas. 



Thursday the long wave trough axis will shift slightly eastward

allowing for modest height rises across the southern Rockies and

into far southwest KS. This will create a stronger flow regime

over western KS during the day and will allow for decent deep

layer shear and with increasing low level moisture, modest

instability through the day. With the building upper ridge to

the west, differential radiational cooling will allow for the

development of a nocturnal low level jet which should again lead

some potential for thunderstorms development overnight Thursday

into Friday, however coverage will be more limited.



Friday and beyond...an expanding southwestern U.S. upper ridge

will signal a much drier period with large scale subsidence

prevailing. This will also lead to afternoon highs around the

100 degree mark and slightly above for the weekend into the

first of next week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



Low stratus continues to bisect the northern half of the local

forecast area. This will continue to erode with a return to VFR

conditions quickly in the forecast period. Winds will remain

fairly steady out of the north-northeast with afternoon

gusts climbing to around 20 knots in areas absent early morning

clouds. Tonight, expect redeveloping cloud cover, particularly

for near the I-70 corridor, which may reintroduce degraded

aviation conditions. Have limited mention to MVFR for now though

cannot rule out further degradations necessary with later

forecasts as confidence increases.



Light rain/thunderstorms become possible again tonight as 

mesoscale forcing increases ahead of approaching high pressure. 

Any development will reside in a fairly narrow corridor which 

may set up around the GCK/DDC area. Given some uncertainty 

regarding direct impacts, will cover with a PROB30 for now.



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...NWS DDC/LBF

AVIATION...NWS LBF