FXUS63 KDDC 032200

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

500 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



...Updated Aviation...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Friday evening will see a risk for thunderstorms mainly 

  during the evening hours with highest chance (60%) near Hays



- Storms on Friday evening are expected to be mostly in the form

  of a line with damaging wind gusts (58+ mph) expected



- Weekend into next week will see near intermittent chance

  (>20%) for showers and thunderstorms with near seasonal

  temperatures (highs in the lower 90s and lows in the 60s)



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Latest water vapor imagery from this afternoon reveals a trough-

ridge-trough structure over CONUS with the ridge sitting over the 

Great Plains.  A deep monsoonal plume of moisture is noted from the 

Sierra Madre of western Mexico into the Great Plains with resultant 

widespread MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg, high PW air, and little to no 

inhibition seen over western Kansas. This moisture plume is along 

and just ahead of a short wave cutting across the Central and 

Southern Rockies with this wave helping trigger scattered convection 

(<25% coverage) as far north as south-central Kansas. Although 

exceedingly low shear values (0-6 km bulk shear < 10 kt) are 

limiting the intensity of convection...some localized heavy rainfall 

(>0.5 inch) is noted in Barber and Comanche Counties. However, this 

convection will fade quickly by early evening with the remainder of 

tonight being dry. Otherwise, the lee trough remains anchored across 

eastern Colorado and New Mexico with resultant gusty south winds 

(>25 mph) existing while a shallow CU field in place over most of 

the region eroding by sunset.  The only slightly interesting item of 

note for late tonight into early on Friday will be a narrow belt of 

theta-e advection in the lower 2-kft that most NWP indicates will 

trigger some lower stratus around sunrise but then fading by mid 

morning.



Friday afternoon to evening will then turn slightly more active as 

the aforementioned short wave slides east out of the Rockies and 

across the Great Plains. This will help kick the lee trough eastward 

into western Kansas by late afternoon. Initially during the morning 

hours, the previously mentioned belt of theta-e advection may trigger 

some showers or weak thunderstorms mainly east of highway 183. 

However, as the area moves into the afternoon hours temps in the 80s 

along with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will bring MLCAPE 

of 1000-2000 J/kg ahead of the surface trough with minimal 

inhibition by 00 UTC. Although 0-6 km bulk shear will be stronger 

(25-35 kt) over southwest Kansas...deeper convection is largely 

expected to initiate over northwest KS and far eastern CO where 

shear is substantially weaker. Combining this with high DCAPE values 

(>2000 J/kg) will result in large cold pool development with 

convection growing upscale into lines by the time it would move into 

southwest and central Kansas with at least a modest risk of 58+ mph

wind gusts. Further, the highest probability (values at or 

above 50%) for rainfall amounts of 0.5 inch or higher will exist

largely north of US Highway 50 and especially closer to the 

I-70 corridor. 



For the weekend into next week the upper ridge will rebuild over the 

Rockies to adjacent High Plains. This will bring a weak west-

northwest flow regime across the Central Plains for days with 

intermittent risk (>20%) for showers and thunderstorms as the 

monsoonal moisture plume remains across the region. Further, temps 

will be near seasonal normals in the low 90s for highs and mid 60s 

for lows.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... 

Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Cumulus field will diminish around 00z Fri, but consensus of

short term models is for stratus to expand northward overnight.

IFR stratus ceilings are most likely at GCK/LBL/DDC 09-15z Fri.

with MVFR more likely at HYS. South winds gusting near 30 kts 

at 22z will diminish to southeast winds 10-15 kts overnight. 

After 18z Fri, strong south winds will return to the airports,

gusting 30-32 kts. Scattered thunderstorms are expected at/near

the airports just after this TAF period, Friday evening, 

00-06z Sat. Kept the very end of this TAF period dry for now,

but a convective mention is expected to be required for the 

06z issuance. 



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AJohnson

AVIATION...Turner