FXUS63 KDDC 021919 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 219 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Friday night there will be a 30-60% chance for thunderstorms. Areas most favorable for thunderstorms will be north and east of the Dodge City area. - Multiple opportunities for accumulating rainfall possible over the weekend and early next week. There will be a chance for thunderstorms (20-40%) almost each night from Saturday through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A 500mb trough was located along the spine of the Rockies early this morning, with one weak upper wave over western New Mexico and another, stronger, upper level trough located across California. A trough of low pressure at the surface was located over eastern Colorado with an area of moisture advecting north across western Texas and Oklahoma at the 700 and 850mb levels. In this area of increasing moisture the radar earlier today indicated some light precipitation was occurring. This moisture spreading north across Texas and Oklahoma will continue to track northward overnight as the upper ridge moves out of the Rockies and crosses the Central Plains. The western New Mexico upper level system will continue to move northeast towards southwest Kansas. This approaching upper level system tonight and early Thursday will deepen the surface trough over eastern Colorado which will result in increasing winds across western Kansas during the day on Thursday. The increasing moisture during the day from these southerly winds will result in an increase in clouds, with possibly a few sprinkles or light rain showers near the Oklahoma border during the day. Any precipitation that does develop during the day on Thursday will be light, with little or no accumulation expected. The better chance for precipitation will occur on Friday as the upper ridge slides east into the Mississippi Valley which will allow a southwesterly flow to develop across the Rockies. Embedded in this southwesterly flow will be the California upper level trough that is forecast to be located near the Central Rockies Friday morning. As this next upper level system moves out into the west central High Plain early in the day, the deepening lee trough at the surface over eastern Colorado will move into far western Kansas. Given the location of this boundary by late day Friday and improving lift ahead of the approaching upper wave...scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible along this boundary. This convection will increase in coverage Friday night as the upper level trough crosses western Kansas. At this time, based on the latest ensemble forecast shear, late day instability, and low level lapse rates >8c/km, there is a chance, small as it may be, that a few of these storms may be strong or even marginally severe. Main hazards from the stronger storms will be isolated gusty winds and hail. Over the weekend an upper level trough will move out into the Plains, and as it does, the chance for thunderstorms will be possible again on Saturday. A westerly zonal flow will also develop across the central and western United States over the weekend as this upper level system passes. Ensembles to various degrees also agree that embedded in this westerly flow there will be several upper waves that will cross the Central and Norther Plains late this weekend and early next week. As each of these subtle waves embedded in this westerly flow crosses the Rockies and moves out into the Plains, it will create an ongoing opportunity for afternoon and evening thunderstorms almost each day from late this weekend into early next week. As for temperatures over the next 7 days, we can look forward to highs mainly in the mid 80s to around 90 on Thursday, followed by a brief warm up Friday and Saturday. Next week we can look forward to temperatures around the seasonal normals for early July, ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A trough of low pressure along the lee of the Rockies will keep the winds Southerly at 10 to around 15 knots today. These southerly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will draw more humid air into southwest Kansas tonight and early Thursday with several of the short term models suggesting that an area of low VFR ceilings (3000 to 5000ft AGL) will begin to spread into portions of southwest Kansas after 09z Thursday morning. Areas most favorable for these lower VFR ceilings will be Liberal and Dodge City. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert