FXUS63 KBIS 272355 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 655 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain continues for central and eastern North Dakota. Chances for rain decrease from west to east tonight through Tuesday morning. - Near normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday, along with mainly dry weather conditions. - A clipper system will bring breezy winds on Thursday and cooler temperatures on Halloween. && .UPDATE... Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Upper level wave and its associated low will continue to push eastward this evening. Rain will continue to linger across the eastern half of the state, with the radar showing a few showers lingering in the central portions. Made some minor Pop adjustments to account for some of these lingering showers. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 This afternoon, a closed upper low was analyzed over northern Saskatchewan, with the associated trough base crossing over the Northern Rockies. Southwest flow aloft, with embedded vort maxes, an upper jet streak, and mid-level warm air advection, was producing widespread rain across much of central and eastern North Dakota. The axis of highest rainfall totals has been just west of an inverted surface trough and stationary front, with a broad 0.75" to 1.25" extending from the far south central through the Devils Lake basin. A few lightning pulses have been observed in South Dakota through the early afternoon, so we are carrying a mention of thunder across our south central through the afternoon, although the likelihood of anything beyond an isolated rumble or two is low. As the trough base shifts east through the evening and overnight hours, synoptic forcing will exit the forecast area and precipitation chances will taper off from west to east, ending in the James River Valley early Tuesday morning. A tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to breezy northwest winds on Tuesday, with high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Expect similar temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday, with lighter winds on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance is becoming more set on a clipper coming through to end the work week, with minor differences regarding timing and strength. NBM POPs are currently very low, under 20 percent, with chances focused on the northeast part of the state. It is worth noting cluster analysis reveals the majority of solutions do bring at least measurable QPF across much of central North Dakota, with precipitation chances not mentioned for much of this area just yet. With this clipper passage, northwest winds will be breezy on Thursday, with increasing cloud cover heading into Halloween. In the wake of this clipper, Halloween has trended a bit colder, with highs mainly from 40 to 45 degrees. However, winds should be lighter compared to Thursday, and what little precipitation chances linger on Friday in the central and east diminish further for the evening hours. Temperatures rebound somewhat over the weekend, although blended POPs start to increase more notably on Saturday. The general scenario being advertised by ensemble members is for synoptic flow to turn northwesterly, with an embedded wave moving through and producing precipitation chances Saturday and Sunday. A small minority of members keeps a dry forecast through the weekend, with zonal flow dominating. Daytime highs are forecast to be near normal, generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s into the start of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Abundant clouds with lingering showers will be found across much of central and eastern portions this evening, with some VFR clouds in the west. Areas with showers could see some MVFR conditions at times through this evening. Showers then push east tonight, although abundant clouds may remain through the night. Expected mainly VFR ceilings with these clouds to perhaps some MVFR heights at times. Tuesday, clouds will lift from west to east with VFR conditions expected. Breezy west northwest winds are also expected for most sites. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Anglin