FXUS63 KBIS 271123

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

623 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Widespread accumulating rainfall today for all but west 

  central and northwestern North Dakota. Chances for rain 

  decrease from west to east tonight through Tuesday morning. 



- There is an 80 percent chance for at least half an inch of

  rainfall from south central North Dakota north/northeast into

  the Turtle Mountains and Devils Lake region through Monday

  night (there is a 60 percent for at least one inch of 

  rainfall for this same area and time period).

 

- Near normal temperatures are forecast through much the

  upcoming work week, along with mainly dry weather conditions.

  A clipper system may move through later next week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



All weather elements are on track with this product issuance 

and aviation update. See blow for forecast details. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Currently, long wave upper level trough over the western and

central CONUS, with the trough axis roughly over the Central and

Northern Rockies. Strong southwest flow aloft over the Northern

Plains, ahead of an intensifying S/WV over Wyoming in the left 

exit region of a strong upper jet streak. This wave has 

triggered an area of sfc low pressure developing across eastern

Colorado/Wyoming earlier, and which has/will become orientated 

from southwest to northeast from western SD into south central 

and northeastern North Dakota this morning and afternoon. The

initial surge of showers continues to expand along the sfc

trough/frontal boundary from the Black Hills of SD north-

northeast across southwest and central ND.   



The aforementioned sfc trough/frontal boundary will be the 

focus for accumulating rainfall now through much of this

afternoon and evening, as lead embedded waves continue to lift 

north/northeast, followed by the main impulse lifting through 

the region later today and tonight. Through 18Z, strong Div Q 

forcing will combine with low level forcing/frontogenesis to 

result in widespread rainfall, with enhanced amounts focused

along the frontal boundary (placement mentioned above) where 

NBM shows an 80 percent chance for at least half an inch of 

rain, and a 60 percent chance for an inch. Our rain chances will

rather quickly end from west to east Monday night as the main

forcing pushes farther east. Will maintain a mention of thunder

for southern areas of ND this afternoon when decent lift and 

elevated instability will be present. 



Afterwards, S/WV ridging builds into the north central CONUS mid

week, followed by a potential clipper/short wave trough passage

later in the work week. Precipitation chances with this feature

look minimal at this time, with the main weather associated with

this wave colder temperatures and a period of gusty winds.

Overall, temperatures are favored to be near normal through

Thursday, then briefly cool off with the above mentioned wave

passage.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Continued overcast conditions with ceilings lowering at all 

terminals this morning as showers continue over central and

portions of western North Dakota. MVFR to periods of IFR 

conditions will accompany the showers this morning and

afternoon, before precipitation chances end from west to east

tonight, along with ceilings improving. KXWA will remain VFR 

through the period. 



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...NH

DISCUSSION...Adam/NH

AVIATION...NH