FXUS63 KBIS 222054

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

354 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures fluctuating between near to above normal through

  the upcoming week. 



- Precipitation chances return Tuesday night through Wednesday

  night.



- Breezy winds to be found at times this week, especially

  Wednesday and Thursday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



A weak wave will move across the state through this evening

bringing some chances for rain and snow showers. Surface high

then takes over for tonight, helping to clear skies and bring

light winds. Dry conditions in place combined with increasing 

winds at night should limit fog formation tonight. Lows tonight

are forecast in the 20s, with some teens in the north. Exiting 

high then brings a steady southerly wind on Monday, and warms 

temperatures back into the 40s and 50s for most areas. There 

could be a few isolated rain showers in the east along a weak 

warm front Monday afternoon and evening. A weak backdoor cold 

front then looks to move through Monday night, keeping overnight

lows cool and in the 20s. This front stalls out on Tuesday

bringing slight cooler temperatures across the state with highs

forecast in the 30s far northeast to near 60 degrees on the

warmer side of the front in the southwest. Generally dry

conditions are also expected for Tuesday. As a surface low takes

shape Tuesday night, a frontal boundary may set up in the north

bringing chances for mainly snow. Lows along this boundary will

remain in the teens and 20s, with 30s in the south away from

this boundary.



Today's guidance delayed slightly the surface low moving out of

the northern Rockies for Wednesday. The boundary mentioned for

Tuesday night stalls in the north Wednesday, while mild and

breezy zonal flow brings warming temperatures. Chances for rain

and snow will be found in the north along this stalled boundary,

while other areas see dry and breezy conditions with highs in

the 50s and 60s. ECMWF EFI not showing much of a strong wind

signal at this time for Wednesday. If this changes and min RH

values lower, then perhaps some increased fire weather concerns

are still possible. Surface high in Canada moves the mentioned

front across the state sometime Wednesday night through

Thursday. This will bring chances for rain and snow, breezy

conditions, and cooler temperatures with highs forecast on

Thursday to be in the 20s and 30s, to some lower 40s south.

Cool conditions may linger through Friday as the surface moves

across the state. NBM spreads then show a warming trend

returning for the upcoming weekend as another ridge is forecast

to build across the west.  



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Lingering low clouds could bring MVFR ceilings through much of

this afternoon to most sites. A few rain or snow showers may

also develop and move from northwest to southeast this

afternoon. Confidence in these showers was only high enough to

include PROB30 mentioning to most sites. Tonight into Monday

morning, VFR ceilings look to return with mainly dry 

conditions. Westerly winds today will become light and variable

this evening, then become southerly tonight into Monday morning.



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Anglin

AVIATION...Anglin