FXUS63 KBIS 051728 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1228 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend through Thursday, then a bit cooler but still seasonal temperatures through the weekend into early next week. - Red flag Warning issued for Thursday across much of western North Dakota. - Mainly dry conditions through the remainder of the week. - Low to medium chances for precipitation returns next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Issued a Red Flag Warning for most of western North Dakota Thursday afternoon and evening with the very low RHs and gusty winds. A cold front will also shift winds to the northwest in the evening. UPDATE Issued at 930 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Quiet weather continues. Expanded the near-critical fire weather area to Billings, Golden Valley, and Divide counties for the overlap of low RHs and gusty winds today. UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Quiet weather continues. No changes needed at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 425 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Current surface analysis places low over southern Alberta with high over the upper Midwest into the Northern Plains. Upper level analysis places broad trough over the north central CONUS, with high over the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains and ridging over the West Coast. Quiet weather remains over our area, with temperatures mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s. For today, ridging enhances over the West Coast while warmer air starts to return into our area. Temperatures climb back to near average over most locations while dry weather continues. On Thursday, temperatures continue to warm, with highs climbing into the mid 80s to mid 90s before a modest cold front drops into the area late in the day into the evening. Most areas will continue to remain dry, but latest guidance indicates a few late night rain showers could develop over the southern James River Valley. With that said, a potent little short wave passes just north of the International Border, and if that feature drops further south than currently forecast, it could result in some precipitation around the Turtle Mountains. Will have to keep an eye on this. Temperatures will be a bit cooler behind the front, but remain seasonal through the remainder of the week while dry weather continues. Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for precipitation return next week as a variety of modest waves are expected to pass through modestly cyclonic flow aloft. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 VFR through the period. Near surface wildfire smoke is possible in the south central early Thursday morning, with lower confidence, left out of KBIS forecast for now. Winds will be southwesterly this afternoon 5 to 20kts before becoming light and variable overnight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Smith