FXUS63 KBIS 032051

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

351 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late 

  this afternoon into tonight. The main hazards are golf ball 

  size hail, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and an isolated 

  tornado or two is possible.



- Thunderstorm chances will continue Friday with an isolated

  chance for severe weather in the southeast.



- Hot and humid conditions this afternoon and Friday with a 

  cooling trend through the rest of the weekend. Daily 

  thunderstorm chances will carry over into early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



An upper level ridge axis is located over the Northern Plains.

High temperatures have climbed upper 80s into the 90s across 

the western and central North Dakota. In addition, a north south

orientated surface pressure gradient will bring forth a low 

level jet around 20 mph that will pull in upper 60s to lower 70s

dewpoints across the state. High dewpoints and high 

temperatures has lead to hot and muggy conditions. Breezy winds 

may keep temperatures feel a few degrees cooler.



Surface low pressure and an upper level wave is forecast to move

in from northeastern Wyoming to eastern Montana. This wave 

will lead to the potential for thunderstorms. Today's 

environment supports a chance for isolated to scattered severe 

storms in the late afternoon into the overnight hours. MUCAPE is

forecast to sit around 2500-3500 j/kg with around 20-30 kts of 

0-6 km bulk shear. The shear is on the lower end which would 

support cluster development off of outflow boundaries. Forecast 

soundings are uncapped. The aforementioned upper level wave and 

convective temperature could play a roll in storm initiation 

this afternoon with the low level jet supporting storms later 

tonight. The mode of the storm could start out as discrete 

supercells in southeastern Montana congealing into a cluster of 

storms as it moves into western North Dakota. The wind threat 

will be the highest overnight. The main hazards are golf ball 

size hail, 70 mph winds, and a tornado or two are possible with 

the supercells early on.



The upper level ridge axis is forecast to move across eastern

North Dakota and eastern Minnesota Friday. This will lead to 

another round of hot and muggy temperatures across the eastern 

half of the state. An upper level wave is forecast to move 

through the region bringing in chances for thunderstorms. In 

addition precipitable water is forecast to increase across the 

eastern half of the state ranging from 1.7 in Bismarck to 1.9 in

Jamestown which could lead to the heavy rain potential. The 

heavy rain will be more localized as the NBM probabilities of an

inch or more of precipitation are low through Saturday. The 

CAMs are picking up on an axis of storms forming across the 

James River Valley tomorrow afternoon slowly pushing into the 

Red River Valley tomorrow evening. There is an isolated risk for

severe weather out east Friday afternoon clipping the southern 

James River Valley. The environment tomorrow has around 2000 

j/kg of MUCAPE could lead to gusty winds and large hail tomorrow

afternoon.



An upper level trough will pass across the region Saturday

leading to increased rain chances and cooler temperatures. The 

wrap around precipitation from the upper level low is forecast 

to bring in showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning with 

another wave following suit Sunday. Temperatures will drop back 

down into the upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend. Next week we 

could see a return of severe weather as the upper level pattern 

returns to zonal flow with multiple waves moving through the 

region. CSU machine learning program is pegging Monday and 

Tuesday for having low chance of severe weather.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



VFR conditions will continue across the state this afternoon.

Models have pushed back the timing for thunderstorms to this 

evening. Models are inconsistent in timing and location of 

thunderstorms this evening. However, each TAF site does have one

or two models moving thunderstorms through the terminal tonight,

thus there are low to medium chance for TSRA. Amendments will 

be made if thunderstorms arrive earlier or later. Winds will 

shift out of the northwest by tomorrow as a front moves through 

the region.



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Johnson

AVIATION...Johnson