FXUS63 KBIS 031503 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1003 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight. The main hazards are golf ball size hail, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado or two. - Thunderstorm chances will continue Friday with an isolated chance for severe weather in the southeast. - Hot and humid conditions today and Friday with a cooling trend through the rest of the weekend. Daily thunderstorm chances will carry over into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Showers and some thunderstorms continue to progress across the state as an upper level wave moves through the region. Light rain has been observed as this system moves across the state. No updates needed at this time as the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to work their way through western and south central North Dakota, but should fizzle out in the next few hours. The main show is still this afternoon through the overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Currently aloft, the ridge axis is over western North Dakota, with southwest flow in eastern Montana. Showers and thunderstorms have been present on the eastern edge of the southwest flow, which are now in western North Dakota. They will slowly move east, and fizzle out by 9am CT. Today will hot and humid, with highs in the 90s, and dew points in the mid 60s. This is due to a warm front sweeping through, and a strong thermal ridge. Along the front, around 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE are expected, with around 30kts of shear. Unfortunately there is still uncertainty with location and timing due to the models being so different. Regardless we are messenging golfball size hail and one or two tornado due to low level helicity and a supercell storm mode initially. They will then form into a line, maybe after 8pm, and 70mph winds are then possible with embedded tornadoes. Storms look to form in far western North Dakota around 4pm MT. These storms will linger overnight as they move across the state. Friday thunderstorms will continue, mainly east of the Missouri River with the ridge axis. The eastern part of our CWA will reach the 90s again while the west is in the lower 80s. An upper level short wave is forecast to move through the region bringing in chances for thunderstorms again. In addition, precipitable water is forecast to increase across the eastern half of the state ranging from 1.5 in Bismarck to 1.8 in Fargo which could lead to the heavy rain potential. The heavy rain will be more localized as the NBM probabilities of an inch or more of precipitation are low through Saturday. There is an isolated risk for severe weather out east Friday afternoon clipping the southern James River Valley. Quarter sized hail and 60mph winds are possible. Timing looks to be in the afternoon and evening. We will remain in southwest flow with multiple waves and low pressures moving through the state this weekend. Given daily low to medium chances of thunderstorms. Highs will be cooler in the 80s. Starting Tuesday, a broad ridging pattern takes hold of the Northern Plains again. Temperatures could climb back into the 90s mid next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR CIGs and VIS except in thunderstorms forecasted on and off through the period. PROB30 was used for now this afternoon and evening as confidence in location is low. Winds will be breezy from the southeast. Storms this evening and early overnight could be severe with golf ball size hail, 60kt winds and maybe atornado. Primarily impacting the west and north. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Johnson DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith