FXUS63 KBIS 022144

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

344 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light accumulating snow will taper off late this afternoon

  through this evening over central North Dakota. Some patchy

  drizzle



- Patchy fog is possible over western North Dakota this evening

  into Tuesday morning. The fog may expand east into central

  North Dakota late tonight into Tuesday.

 

- Low clouds, patchy fog, drizzle or freezing drizzle and

  periods of light snow or flurries will remain over much of

  western and central North Dakota into Wednesday.



- Near to above normal temperatures favored through this week.

  Thursday is expected to be the warmest day with highs in the

  upper 30s northeast to upper 50s far southwest.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 127 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



Light snow will continue to track southeast and taper off

through the afternoon. Currently, light snow was indicated over

much of central North Dakota. There were some pockets of

moderate snow along the Highway 52 corridor from Minot to

Jamestown and along the I-94 corridor over Kidder and Stutsman

counties. All of this activity was tracking to the southeast.

From webcams it looks like most of the accumulations were light,

but there were times when the snow was coming down pretty good. 



For late this afternoon and tonight, light snow will taper off

over central North Dakota. We added some patchy fog over western

ND and portions of the south central. Latest Cams are showing

hints of some fog mostly over the west, but possibly expanding

east into central ND late over night or into Tuesday morning.

With cams not too excited in low visibilities, kept the mention

of fog to patchy to start. However bufkit soundings and the RAP

and HRRR low level moisture products keep the lower layers of

the atmosphere well saturated tonight and Tuesday and even into

Wednesday. 



A shortwave tracking south through eastern Montana Tuesday and 

a northern stream cold front dropping south through North Dakota

Tuesday evening, will each keep a low probability of a mixed 

bag of precipitation over the forecast area. At this time it 

does not appear that QPF amounts will be significant, but if 

the precip would fall as freezing drizzle or light freezing 

rain, there could be travel impacts due to slick roadways. Any 

snow that would fall is not expected to produce significant 

accumulations. There is not a clear signal for one precip type 

over the other, and snow and/or freezing drizzle will both be 

possible. It does appear that the mixed precip threat is higher 

over the west and south central, compared to the north central 

and into the James River Valley. 



Cloudy skies, patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle and fog, with 

light snow or flurries will remain in the forecast through 

Tuesday night and possibly into Wednesday morning. Eventually,

during the day Wednesday and especially by Thursday we see a 

significant warmup with temperatures climbing into the upper 30s

around the Turtle Mountains, to the upper 50s in the far

southwest. As we head into the weekend we see a western North

America Ridge with an eastern North America trough. We will be

setting on the transition between the two, thus quite a bit of

uncertainty in the temperature forecast. We see a drop in 

temperatures on Friday and then a gradual rise thereafter, but 

the NBM ensemble spreads are pretty high through this period,

which is reasonable as we are sitting on the transition between

the western ridge and eastern Trough. A hit or miss rain or snow

shower can not be ruled out after Wednesday but for the most

part we are expecting mostly dry conditions from Wednesday

through the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



The next round of snow, along with lingering low clouds, is

currently pushing through northwest and central ND. One band

that will impact Bismarck may bring a brief period of moderate

to heavy snow with visibilities down to a quarter mile.

Elsewhere across central ND look for mainly MVFR to possible IFR

ceilings and vsbys in snow showers. By this evening widespread

stratus and areas of fog are expected to cover much of western

and central ND with MVFR-IFR ceilings and visibilities

continuing in areas of fog and tapering light snow. Surface flow

is mainly east and will shift to the south and around 12 knots

or less. The exception is far southwest ND which should see a

breezy northwest flow through this afternoon.



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...TWH

AVIATION...TWH