FXUS63 KBIS 021432 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 932 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chances (25 percent) for strong to severe thunderstorms tonight through Thursday afternoon in the west and northwest. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over much of the west and central Thursday. - Medium chances (60 percent) chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday night. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Then low chances for showers and non-severe thunderstorms through the rest of the Holiday weekend. - Very warm and humid today and Thursday, then a cooling trend Friday through the rest of the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 929 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Quiet weather continues across the region as temperatures continue to warm in the lower to mid 70s this morning. High temperatures are still forecast to warm in the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. No updates are needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A quiet morning to start a mostly quiet day. Loaded in the latest observations this morning and blended them to the going forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure continues to mostly dominate the northern portion of the state, while a low pressure producing thunderstorms is in South Dakota. A small surface trough off the low is extending into the James River Valley in North Dakota, where several small thunderstorms have been thus far. These will end soon as the trough moves south and east. Aloft a ridge with very warm and moist air is moving in today, but a surface low and trough will produce storms in Montana and possibly western North Dakota today. These may be strong to severe but CAPE is less than 1000 J/kg so the chances are low. The west is in a level 1 risk from SPC today. These storms may carry over to Thursday, which will be the warmest and most humid day of the week. A warm front will aid in Thursday being the warmest day. The east will be breezy with that warm front passage, with gust around 30 mph. We are still in a level 1 risk for Thursday, however CAPE could be very high, over 2000 J/kg, but deep shear is lacking some. There will also be a cap from a very warm thermal ridge at 850mb. Models still vary on the amount CAPE and the location and timing, probably why SPC has a level 1 risk. Severe hazards would be ping pong sized hail and 60 mph winds. Low level helicity friday night is very high, but uncertain if it will line up timing-wise with the storms (if they form) and the front. Friday locally heavy rain is possible with all the moisture in the air still. The high temperatures Friday will be a little cooler in the west and central, but the east will be in the upper 90s as the ridge pushes east. For the rest of the holiday weekend highs will be in the 80s with daily low chances of storms as multiple waves and low pressures move in. Next week looks more dry except for a Canadian Low from near the Pacific Ocean could take aim at the state. This would produce storms Monday night and Tuesday. Otherwise quiet weather with a high pressure moving in on the backside of that low, with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR CIGs and VIS through the period. Winds will be light and easterly this morning. In the afternoon, winds could gust around 13kts. Tonight starting around 5z isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the west, including KXWA and KDIK. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Johnson DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith