FXUS63 KARX 221811

AFDARX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

111 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Around normal to above normal temperatures with occasional

  chances for precip through the next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Around, above normal temperatures with occasional chances for

precip ahead



Post frontal regime will lead to near-normal temperatures for 

Monday after a chilly Sunday night with lows in the 20s, when 

clearing skies and light winds lead to excellent radiational 

cooling. Through Thursday, expect a warming trend in 

temperatures as another climatologically anomalous upper ridge 

builds far to our southwest, with highs favored to be around 50s

in Taylor County to the upper 60s in far SW WI for Thursday 

afternoon. Similar to last week, there is a good amount of 

uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the aforementioned ridge,

with interquartile ranges for highs of 10-15 degrees Wednesday 

and particularly Thursday, when a cold front may spoil things 

depending on when it arrives. That said, neither of 

Wednesday/Thursday at this time appear to be days with highly 

efficient mixing, so am not concerned about a vast over-

performance vs. NBM (like this past Thursday and Saturday) at 

this time.



As for precipitation, our position on the northeastern

periphery of the building ridge will keep us vulnerable to 

occasional precip from shortwaves ejecting downstream in the 

west-northwesterly flow aloft. At this time, best period for 

precip (35%) looks to be Thursday into Friday when a longwave 

upper trough moves over the Great Lakes. Chance for potentially 

impactful rain (1"+) or snow (3"+) is very low (<5% per 22.13z 

NBM and 22.00z LREF).



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



MVFR stratus should slowly both rise in ceiling height and begin

to scatter out through the afternoon hours with clear skies

expected by 06z. Winds will remain out of the northwest through

around 06z as well, becoming light and variable overnight 

before starting to gain a southerly component near 18z Monday. A

few sprinkles may occur over the next 6 hours but the chance 

for these is very low (<10%).



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Snowmelt has led to rises on area rivers and streams over the

past week with this continuing in areas that saw 1-2 feet of 

snow a week ago, concentrated in the Black and Trempealeau 

basins. These rises have outrun both deterministic forecasts 

and HEFS output with minor flooding ongoing on the Black River 

at Black River Falls. This may also cause minor flooding 

downstream at Galesville but have refrained from issuing a Flood

Watch at this time due this taking place more than 48 hours 

down the road. As for the Trempealeau, do not expect Arcadia to 

reach minor flood as, while the forecast is well higher than top

end HEFS output currently, upstream observations suggest a 

turnaround will very likely (95%) occur before minor flood is 

reached.



&&



.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Ferguson

AVIATION...Ferguson

HYDROLOGY...Ferguson